@Moore @graydon You've both been around as long as I have, so you've seen this: for literal decades, the "tech" industry has increasingly been "slap together a bunch of open source code to implement a product innovation, without any meaningful technical innovation." LLMs are just the culmination of that process, removing the expensive open-source-gluers from the equation, and, as a bonus, creating code that has been laundered clean of any pesky licensing concerns.
If you play this arc out, it suggests the loss of "indigenous" technical capabilities for anyone but the LLM companies. This is very, very dangerous, given that we seem to be slipping into a global oligarchy.
Very early on, Brazil heavily regulated computer imports, mostly to guarantee that they weren't fully reliant on foreign-origin technology. They understood that embracing tech exclusively owned by the US and Europe was inviting a new form of colonialism. LLMs are the same thing, just in a very cyberpunk corporate feudalism sort of way.