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And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.

That's the game, folks.

/fin.

For Trump, anything is a win.

An actually independent Alberta (*highly* unlikely, but a post-intervention compromise could happen) would mean a more dependent vassal state.

Or Alberta becoming a State or territory would give the US access to most of the resources it covets: oil, bitumen, rare earth minerals, water.

It's speculative as to what happens after that. Threats, tariffs, occupying Alberta... these are variables -- especially how Alberta and the rest of Canada react.

But the aim of the independence movement is not that speculative. Anyone seriously thinking Alberta will form a sovereign country is simply a useful idiot.

The Alberta Independence campaign is nakedly an effort to lead to annexation by the US. But how it is intended to happen is that the separatist referendum fails or doesn't even get onto a ballot.

That's the point at which the US would "need to intervene."

Before Russia moved on Crimea, there was an independence movement (and more support among the public for it, at that). Before Russia moved on Ukraine, separatism or Russian-alignment was pushed in Donbas. Referendum was after, but the campaign is the point.

So what happens when Alberta's independence referendum inevitably fails?

Everyone cries that the process was unfair, or that there were shenanigans to steal the result. It's what MAGA does any time there's a result they don't like.

I can't imagine that the "2020 election was stolen" guy wouldn't know what to do with that.

This is why Thomas Lukaszuk's Remain In Canada campaign was brilliant. It undermined the narrative at the right time. But now that Remain is waiting for a ballot, the separatists have a bit of breathing room for publicity.

Polls vary, but most polls (not including far right polls of their own readers) put separatist sentiment at around 20% at most -- usually under. That's not enough to realistically hold a referendum, but it is enough to get some good visuals of people lined up to sign the petition.

The stunning part is the amount of money the US is funneling in, without even trying to move the needle anywhere except the far right political bubble.

At least with Brexit, there were reasoned discussions initiated by "just asking questions" in mainstreamish media. Here? Nothing. Why? It would be money wasted, because Albertans really don't want to separate.

The people behind the project don't really have a viable plan. They DO have a plan, but not one that is realistic, costed, and likely to not be foiled by decades of fighting in the courts. But that's not the stunning part.

2/x

I want people to realize 2 things:

1) The Alberta Independence campaign isn't *meant* to succeed, and

2) It *doesn't have to*, in order to achieve the objective that the Trump administration is funding it for.

1/x

#cdnpoli #abpoli #ableg #albertaindependence