I want people to realize 2 things:
Uncategorized
14
Posts
4
Posters
15
Views
-
I want people to realize 2 things:
1) The Alberta Independence campaign isn't *meant* to succeed, and
2) It *doesn't have to*, in order to achieve the objective that the Trump administration is funding it for.
1/x
-
I want people to realize 2 things:
1) The Alberta Independence campaign isn't *meant* to succeed, and
2) It *doesn't have to*, in order to achieve the objective that the Trump administration is funding it for.
1/x
The people behind the project don't really have a viable plan. They DO have a plan, but not one that is realistic, costed, and likely to not be foiled by decades of fighting in the courts. But that's not the stunning part.
2/x
-
The people behind the project don't really have a viable plan. They DO have a plan, but not one that is realistic, costed, and likely to not be foiled by decades of fighting in the courts. But that's not the stunning part.
2/x
The stunning part is the amount of money the US is funneling in, without even trying to move the needle anywhere except the far right political bubble.
At least with Brexit, there were reasoned discussions initiated by "just asking questions" in mainstreamish media. Here? Nothing. Why? It would be money wasted, because Albertans really don't want to separate.
-
The stunning part is the amount of money the US is funneling in, without even trying to move the needle anywhere except the far right political bubble.
At least with Brexit, there were reasoned discussions initiated by "just asking questions" in mainstreamish media. Here? Nothing. Why? It would be money wasted, because Albertans really don't want to separate.
Polls vary, but most polls (not including far right polls of their own readers) put separatist sentiment at around 20% at most -- usually under. That's not enough to realistically hold a referendum, but it is enough to get some good visuals of people lined up to sign the petition.
-
Polls vary, but most polls (not including far right polls of their own readers) put separatist sentiment at around 20% at most -- usually under. That's not enough to realistically hold a referendum, but it is enough to get some good visuals of people lined up to sign the petition.
This is why Thomas Lukaszuk's Remain In Canada campaign was brilliant. It undermined the narrative at the right time. But now that Remain is waiting for a ballot, the separatists have a bit of breathing room for publicity.
-
This is why Thomas Lukaszuk's Remain In Canada campaign was brilliant. It undermined the narrative at the right time. But now that Remain is waiting for a ballot, the separatists have a bit of breathing room for publicity.
So what happens when Alberta's independence referendum inevitably fails?
Everyone cries that the process was unfair, or that there were shenanigans to steal the result. It's what MAGA does any time there's a result they don't like.
I can't imagine that the "2020 election was stolen" guy wouldn't know what to do with that.
-
So what happens when Alberta's independence referendum inevitably fails?
Everyone cries that the process was unfair, or that there were shenanigans to steal the result. It's what MAGA does any time there's a result they don't like.
I can't imagine that the "2020 election was stolen" guy wouldn't know what to do with that.
Before Russia moved on Crimea, there was an independence movement (and more support among the public for it, at that). Before Russia moved on Ukraine, separatism or Russian-alignment was pushed in Donbas. Referendum was after, but the campaign is the point.
-
Before Russia moved on Crimea, there was an independence movement (and more support among the public for it, at that). Before Russia moved on Ukraine, separatism or Russian-alignment was pushed in Donbas. Referendum was after, but the campaign is the point.
The Alberta Independence campaign is nakedly an effort to lead to annexation by the US. But how it is intended to happen is that the separatist referendum fails or doesn't even get onto a ballot.
That's the point at which the US would "need to intervene."
-
The Alberta Independence campaign is nakedly an effort to lead to annexation by the US. But how it is intended to happen is that the separatist referendum fails or doesn't even get onto a ballot.
That's the point at which the US would "need to intervene."
It's speculative as to what happens after that. Threats, tariffs, occupying Alberta... these are variables -- especially how Alberta and the rest of Canada react.
But the aim of the independence movement is not that speculative. Anyone seriously thinking Alberta will form a sovereign country is simply a useful idiot.
-
It's speculative as to what happens after that. Threats, tariffs, occupying Alberta... these are variables -- especially how Alberta and the rest of Canada react.
But the aim of the independence movement is not that speculative. Anyone seriously thinking Alberta will form a sovereign country is simply a useful idiot.
For Trump, anything is a win.
An actually independent Alberta (*highly* unlikely, but a post-intervention compromise could happen) would mean a more dependent vassal state.
Or Alberta becoming a State or territory would give the US access to most of the resources it covets: oil, bitumen, rare earth minerals, water.
-
For Trump, anything is a win.
An actually independent Alberta (*highly* unlikely, but a post-intervention compromise could happen) would mean a more dependent vassal state.
Or Alberta becoming a State or territory would give the US access to most of the resources it covets: oil, bitumen, rare earth minerals, water.
And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
-
And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
@mercedesallen Having lived there for a number of years and having friends and family there, I spend a lot of time (too much, probably) thinking of how all of this will play out. Your analysis has provided some well-reasoned clarity. Thank you.
-
I want people to realize 2 things:
1) The Alberta Independence campaign isn't *meant* to succeed, and
2) It *doesn't have to*, in order to achieve the objective that the Trump administration is funding it for.
1/x
@mercedesallen Wisconsin is all too familiar with this (divide & conquer) tactic. Our former Governor wrote the GOP playbook for it, and now it's gone national. It's going to be a long fight. Elbows up.
-
undefined oblomov@sociale.network shared this topic on
-
And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
@mercedesallen just the Overton window shift in the public discourse is a win for these criminals.
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
-
@stefano In the Chateau maybe ??
-
@monsieuricon I hate this.
-
Montreal is about to be hit by a bad ice storm -- 2-3 cm of ice on everything forecasted. I hope they got it wrong, but if not, I may lose power for a few days.
May be time to invest into an ecoflow home battery and a vehicle that can do v2h.
-
I have a No Soliciting sign on my door, which salespeople often ignore, and I get grumpy about it. But, a Sonic fiber internet sales person just came to the door claiming it is now available here and gave me a card for two months free, so I'm slightly less mad about it. Though I suspect it's a lie. They've been sending me flyers for years and every time I check it is not available.
I'm gonna check again, anyway, as I hate the cable company and they're charging me twice as much for slow service.
-
«Lo scontro sulla famiglia nel bosco? Rischia di distruggere il sistema di tutela dei minori» https://www.avvenire.it/attualita/lo-scontro-sulla-famiglia-nel-bosco-rischia-di-distruggere-il-sistema-di-tutela-dei-minori_105586
-
Prepararsi al pi day 2026
Quest'anno mettere in piedi il Carnevale della Matematica del 14 marzo, che sarà peraltro la 195.ma edizione, non è stato per nulla semplice. Il motivo è che il giorno del pi day sarò sul treno per rientrare da Firenze, dove a partire dall'11 marzo sarà in svolgimento Didacta, fiera della didattica italiana. Ho, quindi, costretto gli altri matematti a inviarmi con congruo anticipo i loro contributi (e nel frattempo ho anche cercato di impostare delle bozze, non sia mai che riesca a raccontarvi qualcosa da Didacta a fine serata!), per cui non ho preparato nessun contenuto video da lanciare in contemporanea o in anteprima al Carnevale. E allora ecco l'idea di proporre in un post apposito un paio di news di MaddMaths! dedicate proprio al pi day e che sarebbero state decisamente vecchie uscendo all'interno del Carnevale:
Tutte le info per segnalare gli eventi dedicati alla Giornata intenazionale della matematica: per questa edizione il tema è Matematica e speranzaInoltre c'è anche una pagina con alcune attività da organizzare per il pi day. All'interno troverete alcune schede in italiano per attività a tema matematico (e pi greco!).Anche se mancano ancora pochi giorni al #piday, c'è comunque ancora un po' di tempo per segnalare eventi o lasciarsi ispirare dalle attività proposte!
https://dropseaofulaula.blogspot.com/2026/03/prepararsi-al-pi-day-2026.html
Grazie a @ulaulaman per la segnalazione https://mastodon.social/@ulaulaman/116205324715448343
-
@oblomov @mcc @grumpygamer
After reading up on this a bit I can semi-confidently say that this branching process with d6s will continue infinitely. The highest chance of it terminating is of course in the first or second roll, but after that chances of terminating become infinitesimally small.
-
@oblomov @mcc @grumpygamer hi! It seems like you've stumbled upon the lovely mathematical genre of problem called 'branching processes' and 'extinction probabilities'. I don't know how to calculate this, but I can show you where to look.
Tbis Reddit post had a similar idea to you: https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/s/jH1LzTXROe
This is the wiki page on branching processes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branching_process?wprov=sfla1
