I want people to realize 2 things:
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Polls vary, but most polls (not including far right polls of their own readers) put separatist sentiment at around 20% at most -- usually under. That's not enough to realistically hold a referendum, but it is enough to get some good visuals of people lined up to sign the petition.
This is why Thomas Lukaszuk's Remain In Canada campaign was brilliant. It undermined the narrative at the right time. But now that Remain is waiting for a ballot, the separatists have a bit of breathing room for publicity.
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This is why Thomas Lukaszuk's Remain In Canada campaign was brilliant. It undermined the narrative at the right time. But now that Remain is waiting for a ballot, the separatists have a bit of breathing room for publicity.
So what happens when Alberta's independence referendum inevitably fails?
Everyone cries that the process was unfair, or that there were shenanigans to steal the result. It's what MAGA does any time there's a result they don't like.
I can't imagine that the "2020 election was stolen" guy wouldn't know what to do with that.
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So what happens when Alberta's independence referendum inevitably fails?
Everyone cries that the process was unfair, or that there were shenanigans to steal the result. It's what MAGA does any time there's a result they don't like.
I can't imagine that the "2020 election was stolen" guy wouldn't know what to do with that.
Before Russia moved on Crimea, there was an independence movement (and more support among the public for it, at that). Before Russia moved on Ukraine, separatism or Russian-alignment was pushed in Donbas. Referendum was after, but the campaign is the point.
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Before Russia moved on Crimea, there was an independence movement (and more support among the public for it, at that). Before Russia moved on Ukraine, separatism or Russian-alignment was pushed in Donbas. Referendum was after, but the campaign is the point.
The Alberta Independence campaign is nakedly an effort to lead to annexation by the US. But how it is intended to happen is that the separatist referendum fails or doesn't even get onto a ballot.
That's the point at which the US would "need to intervene."
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The Alberta Independence campaign is nakedly an effort to lead to annexation by the US. But how it is intended to happen is that the separatist referendum fails or doesn't even get onto a ballot.
That's the point at which the US would "need to intervene."
It's speculative as to what happens after that. Threats, tariffs, occupying Alberta... these are variables -- especially how Alberta and the rest of Canada react.
But the aim of the independence movement is not that speculative. Anyone seriously thinking Alberta will form a sovereign country is simply a useful idiot.
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It's speculative as to what happens after that. Threats, tariffs, occupying Alberta... these are variables -- especially how Alberta and the rest of Canada react.
But the aim of the independence movement is not that speculative. Anyone seriously thinking Alberta will form a sovereign country is simply a useful idiot.
For Trump, anything is a win.
An actually independent Alberta (*highly* unlikely, but a post-intervention compromise could happen) would mean a more dependent vassal state.
Or Alberta becoming a State or territory would give the US access to most of the resources it covets: oil, bitumen, rare earth minerals, water.
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For Trump, anything is a win.
An actually independent Alberta (*highly* unlikely, but a post-intervention compromise could happen) would mean a more dependent vassal state.
Or Alberta becoming a State or territory would give the US access to most of the resources it covets: oil, bitumen, rare earth minerals, water.
And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
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And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
@mercedesallen Having lived there for a number of years and having friends and family there, I spend a lot of time (too much, probably) thinking of how all of this will play out. Your analysis has provided some well-reasoned clarity. Thank you.
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I want people to realize 2 things:
1) The Alberta Independence campaign isn't *meant* to succeed, and
2) It *doesn't have to*, in order to achieve the objective that the Trump administration is funding it for.
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@mercedesallen Wisconsin is all too familiar with this (divide & conquer) tactic. Our former Governor wrote the GOP playbook for it, and now it's gone national. It's going to be a long fight. Elbows up.
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undefined oblomov@sociale.network shared this topic
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And when Alberta falls, other regions become possible. But only Alberta can be relied on to vote Republican, so only Alberta has a shot at being anything more than a territory.
That's the game, folks.
/fin.
@mercedesallen just the Overton window shift in the public discourse is a win for these criminals.