The Atlantic: Why Trump Didn’t Plan for the Strait of Hormuz

[angusm@mastodon.social]

@wordshaper @cstross

Helmuth von Moltke's Law of Military Operations: No plan survives contact with the enemy.

McIntyre's Corollary: Having NO plan means that YOU don't survive contact with the enemy.

[photo55@mastodon.social]

It takes effort.
They have, or at least had, deep ranks of experts on every geopolitical area and problem, keen to offer information, answer any questions put.
But what they want is agreement and the appearance of loyalty.

[swaldman@mendeddrum.org]

@cstross Old enough? Some of them.

Paying attention to anything outside their own borders at the time? Open to question, I feel.

[mwop@phpc.social]

@cstross They were too busy having their egos (among other things) massaged by minors to pay attention back then.

[jorny@mastodon.social]

@cstross

The level of self delusion and machismo stupidity is darkly fascinating.

https://kyivindependent.com/trump-ukraine-drone-defenses/

"No, we don't need (Ukraine's) help in drone defense," Trump said in the interview. "We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually."

[dryak@mstdn.science]

@angusm @wordshaper @cstross and no, asking Grok AI or any other chat bot doesn't constitute "a plan".

[dashdsrdash@tilde.zone]

@angusm @cstross

My assumption is that, somewhere in a Pentagon basement, there are three to seven different war plans for Iran.

And none of them were consulted by the present evil incompetents; in fact, I suspect that the secretary of the Department of Mexico didn't even consider that planning had been done.

I suppose that's a bit of relief: he probably doesn't know about the plans to occupy Canada or defend against a Cuban invasion of Florida.

[angusm@mastodon.social]

@dashdsrdash @cstross At least one of the basement war plans consists of a single sheet of paper with the word "DON’T” printed on it in block letters.

Not that I think that the Iranians are invulnerable superbeings, but that the possible bad outcomes are many and their probabilities are high. Indifference to civilian suffering may make some of the outcomes seem acceptable, but there's still a lot of room for things to go wrong in ways that even a psychopath won't like.

[nazokiyoubinbou@mastodon.social]

@cstross Haha, you think they can remember past lunch today. Hard to imagine having that much confidence in these people.

(/big sarcasm)

[robo105@mastodon.social]

@cstross You never get the war you think you are going to have

[highlandlawyer@mastodon.social]

@cstross
Part of the Christofacist Revelations cosplay is "The eagle will fall"; it's a death cult, after the wars, plagues, & famine, the ultimate collapse of the USA is part of the plan.

[deepmud@mas.to]

@cstross he did zero planning. He took his orders from other people, including Putin

Thanks a lot, you idiots who just could't vote for the black attorney lady

[adamrice@c.im]

@cstross He didn’t plan for the Strait of Hormuz because it’s external to his goal for this war: to distract from the Epstein files. In that respect, it’s been a success.

[jontorrance@mendeddrum.org]

@cstross Of course, some of them are fresh out of college MAGA with no experience. And Hegseth was 8 years old at the end of 1988 so I doubt he remembers much about that any more than I truly remember the 70s Arab oil embargo.

[novelgazer@infosec.exchange]

@cstross I can't read the Atlantic article, do they address how conveniently the administration's planning failure worked out for Russia?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-russia-oil-sanctions.html

[kingtor@frontrange.co]

@jorny @cstross Trying to teach that to our military drone technicians what Ukraine has done with drones would be like trying to teach an F1 mechanic to build a low-rider bicycle. What Trump and the entire Military Industrial Complex is lacking is the imagination to know that a low-rider bicycle is a better tool for some jobs than an F1 car.

[rupert@mastodon.nz]

@angusm @dashdsrdash @cstross It may be obsolete information, but a couple of decades ago it was worked out that the US would need one million soldiers to occupy Iran and only have it be as chaotic as the occupation of Iraq. Fewer troops, worse outcomes.

[deixis9@beige.party]

@novelgazer @cstross

Here

"Astonishingly, President Trump and his aides were caught unprepared when Iran, under air assault from the United States and Israel, retaliated by targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf region and specifically through the Strait of Hormuz"

It goes on⬇️

https://archive.is/Gg3ll#selection-689.0-689.237

[jhb17@mastodon.online]

@cstross

Oh, they don't have to learn from the past. They have this work-around, the 'Shock & Awe' plan that will remove any resistance.

So, when their plans do meet resistance, they have no fall back or options.

[cstross@wandering.shop]

@angusm Also, the Iranian regime has, within the living memory of its surviving leaders, fought an existential war for national survival against a fascist dictatorship. This isn't their first rodeo.