Betting on prompt engineering seems like betting on hybrids.
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Betting on prompt engineering seems like betting on hybrids. Which are selling very well right now. But if you think you have a decade of career left, ask yourself this question:
What is the value of “prompt engineering,” when we get to the following inflection point:
“Siri, make me a copy of Salesforce for my business, and after consulting legal precedent, make the most minimally invasive changes to insulate me from accusations of theft.”
Actually, that’s just the warm-up:
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Betting on prompt engineering seems like betting on hybrids. Which are selling very well right now. But if you think you have a decade of career left, ask yourself this question:
What is the value of “prompt engineering,” when we get to the following inflection point:
“Siri, make me a copy of Salesforce for my business, and after consulting legal precedent, make the most minimally invasive changes to insulate me from accusations of theft.”
Actually, that’s just the warm-up:
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What is the value of software companies when we reach that point?
Sure, anyone will be able to prompt planet-scale SaaS into existence. Open AI, Google, and especially MSFT will see to that, while xAI is cornering the market on digital mail-order brides.
But anyone includes customers, no? If the arc of LLMs bends towards being reliable enough to prompt production SaaS into existence, there is a business model problem to solve as well as a whither-labour problem to solve.
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What is the value of software companies when we reach that point?
Sure, anyone will be able to prompt planet-scale SaaS into existence. Open AI, Google, and especially MSFT will see to that, while xAI is cornering the market on digital mail-order brides.
But anyone includes customers, no? If the arc of LLMs bends towards being reliable enough to prompt production SaaS into existence, there is a business model problem to solve as well as a whither-labour problem to solve.
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@raganwald I would have been extremely skeptical about LLMs being able to be cajoled into making software at scale a year ago, but I am pretty astounded by how good the best agentic AIs have gotten and how much they can do on their own...they look stupid while iterating and making tons of mistakes, but I also look stupid when I'm iterating and making tons of mistakes. Closing the loop and allowing them to read the errors, search, and try again really does unleash something impressive.
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@raganwald I would have been extremely skeptical about LLMs being able to be cajoled into making software at scale a year ago, but I am pretty astounded by how good the best agentic AIs have gotten and how much they can do on their own...they look stupid while iterating and making tons of mistakes, but I also look stupid when I'm iterating and making tons of mistakes. Closing the loop and allowing them to read the errors, search, and try again really does unleash something impressive.
@swelljoe And even if they weren’t that impressive, this use case is remarkably compelling:
What if the AI companies become the only software companies? Think of their ability to rent-seek when all automation runs through them!
It’s worth juggling and tuning and adjusting heuristics and hiring tens of thousands of humans to help fine-tune the results.
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@swelljoe And even if they weren’t that impressive, this use case is remarkably compelling:
What if the AI companies become the only software companies? Think of their ability to rent-seek when all automation runs through them!
It’s worth juggling and tuning and adjusting heuristics and hiring tens of thousands of humans to help fine-tune the results.
@raganwald the AI arms race starts to make sense. Why wouldn't you spend a trillion dollars if you can replace every software company forever?
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@alsivx Però fa come tutti gli altri, ossia che non si sposta qui. Diamine, dici che la roba popolare/closed source è una schifezza e sta rovinando internet, allors perché non vieni qui?!
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@giacomom In verità Mastodon è uno di una serie di social, il perché non vengano adottati in massa, è per varie ragioni che sarebbe complesso elencare e spiegare qui ma comunque ci sono già delle istituzioni che lo usano. Oltre al parlamento di qualche stato dell'unione, la Commissione Europea ha una sua istanza:
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Chiudiamo la giornata in bellezza.
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Brian Eno News (@dark-shark.bsky.social)
https://bsky.app/profile/dark-shark.bsky.social/post/3m7vlk4mzxk2y
> Nico: Live at Reims Cathedral, France, December 13, 1974 - featuring John Cale (viola, keys, vocals), Brian Eno (synths, vocals), Mike Oldfield (guitar, bass), Kevin Ayers (vocals), and Robert Wyatt (drums) #FLAC #ChristaPäffgen tinyurl.com/3mujhbdw
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Rettifico, l'intero canale è oro colato. Ogni nuovo video è meglio del precedente.
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@raganwald the AI arms race starts to make sense. Why wouldn't you spend a trillion dollars if you can replace every software company forever?
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verso l'inverno
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Throwback to me sneaking in signatures into my books!
Signing the books after they’re assembled and packed is a logistical nightmare (you don’t want to have to repack and reship books at your home), and I find bookplates to be clumsy…
…but @glennf had this great idea of signing a 100 books in advance at the printer’s, when they were still uncut signatures – so some people would get a nice surprise. Even bought super nice pens just for that occasion. It was a fun moment.
