This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
I was really confused about the grassy knoll thing, one search later and I discovered people are still discussing the death of JFK on the year 2026 -
@vegai Trump and his ear bullet
Oh, and here I thought it was about JFK's shot -
You’re mad because you’re so deeply invested and wired into something that me yelling that the emperor is naked makes you want to fight.
@hacks4pancakes at this point I wonder if the emperor *ever* had cloths... :/
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
@hacks4pancakes The lack of both critical thought and curiosity is appalling, but also (at least in the US) a sign of the success of our war on education, and by extension, thought.
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@RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Last night, my uncle (investor/manager, zero computing background) called me saying he wants to install OpenClaw on his machine (and "to automate my company") with a lot of FOMO energy. He asked me because he didn't have the skill to figure out how to install that (and yet still thinks it is fine to let it "automate" his company, unmaintained?) I honestly don't know how to dissuade him.
@lesley @RegGuy @hacks4pancakes isn't that what it comes down to? All that work making money sucks, wouldn't it be nice to just make money without the work part? Or pay a little extra to make the work part go away. That seems to be the general consensus, work is for suckers. Let the suckers do the work, just give me money.
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@schrotthaufen @hacks4pancakes seriously. when the old hands complain about some shiny new thing, sometimes it's not because we're being crotchety old nags who are out to spoil everyone's fun
@shadowspar @schrotthaufen @hacks4pancakes Actually it is? You get to be a crotchety Old Nag by being too smart to fall for the BS and avoiding those parts of the map labelled 'Here be Dragons!', and NEVER trying the places labelled 'Here b...🔥🔥 🔥 ' etc.
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
@hacks4pancakes same! Well done us. Still not sure anyone is listening…
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
@hacks4pancakes what do you currently have a bad feeling about?
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@RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Great idea, if you don't know enough to see the problems.
The Dunning-Kruger effect, monetized.
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@RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Last night, my uncle (investor/manager, zero computing background) called me saying he wants to install OpenClaw on his machine (and "to automate my company") with a lot of FOMO energy. He asked me because he didn't have the skill to figure out how to install that (and yet still thinks it is fine to let it "automate" his company, unmaintained?) I honestly don't know how to dissuade him.
@lesley @RegGuy @hacks4pancakes
"Are you happy to hand the unsupervised day to day running of your business over to somebody who is also working for your competitors and would you also be okay with not knowing what they're doing, how they're doing it, why they're doing it, and what they're doing with your customers assets, resources and customers or who they're sharing them with?" -
@RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Last night, my uncle (investor/manager, zero computing background) called me saying he wants to install OpenClaw on his machine (and "to automate my company") with a lot of FOMO energy. He asked me because he didn't have the skill to figure out how to install that (and yet still thinks it is fine to let it "automate" his company, unmaintained?) I honestly don't know how to dissuade him.
@lesley @hacks4pancakes Have him watch "Colossus: The Forbin Project."
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@hacks4pancakes i've come to accept that many need to learn the hard way and find out themselves. I joke my home office walls are plastered with 'i told you so's.
you'd think that over time one's track record would change things... but nah 😅
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You’re mad because you’re so deeply invested and wired into something that me yelling that the emperor is naked makes you want to fight.
@hacks4pancakes (...but what about all that Emperor stock I just bought, are you saying it's worthless now?? Clearly this is all your fault, for setting off the big sell-off before I had a chance to cash in on the bubble. 🤡)
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@lesley @hacks4pancakes Have him watch "Colossus: The Forbin Project."
As an aside on the movie, one of the funniest parts for us technically saavy users, the program was apparently in BASIC, he typed RUN to start it.
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The one I haven’t won out on because thankfully the other shoe hasn’t dropped is insecure child tracking apps but omg
@hacks4pancakes The other shoe was actually under the bed the whole time, no need to wait. >.<
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
@hacks4pancakes sorry in advance for the joke, but in most of the cases you mention, you were extremely right and they were extremely to the right. Far right.
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@RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Last night, my uncle (investor/manager, zero computing background) called me saying he wants to install OpenClaw on his machine (and "to automate my company") with a lot of FOMO energy. He asked me because he didn't have the skill to figure out how to install that (and yet still thinks it is fine to let it "automate" his company, unmaintained?) I honestly don't know how to dissuade him.
@lesley @RegGuy @hacks4pancakes Tell him what it is - a scam. If it is too good to be true it probably is right? Remind him that there is no such thing as a free lunch. You don't need ELI5 here - the problem is social not technical.
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@mrrmot @cford @hacks4pancakes
Once we agree on the basic observable facts, I find that predictions about the future can be quite subjective. And rational decision making must involve expectations about likely future consequences, I would think.
"Agree on the basic observable facts" is not a thing in at least one country with an enormous lot of highly concentrated power and wealth.
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undefined oblomov@sociale.network shared this topic on
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This is anecdotal, but every time I say I have a bad feeling about something
(See: Elon and companies, alleged grassy knoll ear shots, LLMs, cryptocurrency, Gamergate, project 2025)
And I get tech people yelling at me in the comments,
Within two years I’m proven extremely right.
I kinda hate that you're right so often, but glad you're smart enough to see the things I can't.
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
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I have a No Soliciting sign on my door, which salespeople often ignore, and I get grumpy about it. But, a Sonic fiber internet sales person just came to the door claiming it is now available here and gave me a card for two months free, so I'm slightly less mad about it. Though I suspect it's a lie. They've been sending me flyers for years and every time I check it is not available.
I'm gonna check again, anyway, as I hate the cable company and they're charging me twice as much for slow service.
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«Lo scontro sulla famiglia nel bosco? Rischia di distruggere il sistema di tutela dei minori» https://www.avvenire.it/attualita/lo-scontro-sulla-famiglia-nel-bosco-rischia-di-distruggere-il-sistema-di-tutela-dei-minori_105586
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Prepararsi al pi day 2026
Quest'anno mettere in piedi il Carnevale della Matematica del 14 marzo, che sarà peraltro la 195.ma edizione, non è stato per nulla semplice. Il motivo è che il giorno del pi day sarò sul treno per rientrare da Firenze, dove a partire dall'11 marzo sarà in svolgimento Didacta, fiera della didattica italiana. Ho, quindi, costretto gli altri matematti a inviarmi con congruo anticipo i loro contributi (e nel frattempo ho anche cercato di impostare delle bozze, non sia mai che riesca a raccontarvi qualcosa da Didacta a fine serata!), per cui non ho preparato nessun contenuto video da lanciare in contemporanea o in anteprima al Carnevale. E allora ecco l'idea di proporre in un post apposito un paio di news di MaddMaths! dedicate proprio al pi day e che sarebbero state decisamente vecchie uscendo all'interno del Carnevale:
Tutte le info per segnalare gli eventi dedicati alla Giornata intenazionale della matematica: per questa edizione il tema è Matematica e speranzaInoltre c'è anche una pagina con alcune attività da organizzare per il pi day. All'interno troverete alcune schede in italiano per attività a tema matematico (e pi greco!).Anche se mancano ancora pochi giorni al #piday, c'è comunque ancora un po' di tempo per segnalare eventi o lasciarsi ispirare dalle attività proposte!
https://dropseaofulaula.blogspot.com/2026/03/prepararsi-al-pi-day-2026.html
Grazie a @ulaulaman per la segnalazione https://mastodon.social/@ulaulaman/116205324715448343
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@oblomov @mcc @grumpygamer
After reading up on this a bit I can semi-confidently say that this branching process with d6s will continue infinitely. The highest chance of it terminating is of course in the first or second roll, but after that chances of terminating become infinitesimally small.
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@oblomov @mcc @grumpygamer hi! It seems like you've stumbled upon the lovely mathematical genre of problem called 'branching processes' and 'extinction probabilities'. I don't know how to calculate this, but I can show you where to look.
Tbis Reddit post had a similar idea to you: https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/s/jH1LzTXROe
This is the wiki page on branching processes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branching_process?wprov=sfla1
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@stefano also, for convenience, the overview page:
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@mcc @grumpygamer that would be my intuition as well but I'm sure there's a mathematical way to prove it
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@mullvadnet Great writeup, raising awareness on this is very important. Mullvad reporting thoroughly on this topic, I appreciate it.
