Okay, a promised infodump.
-
Okay, a promised infodump.
So, the war on Ukraine. By Russia. To be utterly clear from the beginning about whose choice this was.
Ukraine has fought this war with an incredible application of sheer brainpower: innovation after innovation, new tactics, new technology, homemade weapons, incredible things.
And they haven't just fired them off randomly to just cause Russian deaths.
They've actually built an incredible strategy based on turning the Russian myth of invincibility upside down.
So first I need to explain that myth, where it comes from, and why it's a mythmaking exercise, and not at all what it's sold as.
First, then, we need to look at Napoleon Bonaparte. The first one.
When he invaced Russia, in 1812, he did so from a start line more or less in modern Poland. He gathered 600,000 troops, from several forcibly allied nations. And off the went to take Moscow. So they marched and they marched, and as they marched, the summer passed, and autumn came. By this time their supply lines were literally thousands of km in length. In a time with no railroads or air transport, that was a HUGE distance. Everything that moved moved by horsepower, or mulepower.
The Russians didn't stand and fight. They fought delaying actions, while their troops destroyed supplies, broke down shelters, and basically scorched the earth for the incoming French armies.
This meant that they couldn't forage from the countryside, as had been Napoleon's innovation earlier in the Napoleonic wars. His men would march much more quickly than other troops, and did so spread out enough to be able to feed themselves by basically taking everything the nearest peasants had. Ruining those people's existence, of course, but keeping themselves fed.
In Russia, this was no longer possible. All supplies had to be brought a couple of thousand km to the front, a wagonload at a time.
1/10
-
Okay, a promised infodump.
So, the war on Ukraine. By Russia. To be utterly clear from the beginning about whose choice this was.
Ukraine has fought this war with an incredible application of sheer brainpower: innovation after innovation, new tactics, new technology, homemade weapons, incredible things.
And they haven't just fired them off randomly to just cause Russian deaths.
They've actually built an incredible strategy based on turning the Russian myth of invincibility upside down.
So first I need to explain that myth, where it comes from, and why it's a mythmaking exercise, and not at all what it's sold as.
First, then, we need to look at Napoleon Bonaparte. The first one.
When he invaced Russia, in 1812, he did so from a start line more or less in modern Poland. He gathered 600,000 troops, from several forcibly allied nations. And off the went to take Moscow. So they marched and they marched, and as they marched, the summer passed, and autumn came. By this time their supply lines were literally thousands of km in length. In a time with no railroads or air transport, that was a HUGE distance. Everything that moved moved by horsepower, or mulepower.
The Russians didn't stand and fight. They fought delaying actions, while their troops destroyed supplies, broke down shelters, and basically scorched the earth for the incoming French armies.
This meant that they couldn't forage from the countryside, as had been Napoleon's innovation earlier in the Napoleonic wars. His men would march much more quickly than other troops, and did so spread out enough to be able to feed themselves by basically taking everything the nearest peasants had. Ruining those people's existence, of course, but keeping themselves fed.
In Russia, this was no longer possible. All supplies had to be brought a couple of thousand km to the front, a wagonload at a time.
1/10
2/10
Right. The French are now nearing their goal. Moscow is on the horizon. They face the Russians at Borodino, in a huge, chaotic battle, and really, neither side wins a victory. Both sides claimed it, but it wasn't clear for either side.
France didn't proceed, but the Russians didn't break them either.
So now it's late autumn, and the Russians now call on their long-time ally, General Moroz. Moroz is "frost" in Russian.
Meaning, the Russian winter arrived. The French, had Moscow. But they had no supplies getting in, and the Russian government had pulled out. Left the empty city to the French. Who could do nothing with it of value.
Napoleon paused. For several weeks, as I recall, he vacillated. By the time he figured out that retreat was called for, it was too late. Winter had arrived.
Now they had to make that 2000-lm+ trek back to their start line, only this time with Russian Cossack cavalry harrying their every move, picking off stragglers, and generally pushing them to keep moving. People started to die in the cold, and of lack of supplies. They were strarving.
On and on the retreat went, more haggard every day, until a meagre total of 60,000 men struggled back to Poland and out of Russia. Napoleon had been defeated; the Russian myth of invincibility was born.
The crucial part of this myth: they didn't talk about the fact that it had only been possible because they were defending the whole time. They retreated, trading land for time, luring the French to go too far, and let the winter sort them out along with the partisan activity crushing their supply lines, keeping their troops awake all night, and things like that.
All in all, a miserable time for the Emperor of France.
Fast forward 130 years. 1941, June 22.
Russia is hit with a "surprise" invasion by their nominal allies, the Germans.
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2/10
Right. The French are now nearing their goal. Moscow is on the horizon. They face the Russians at Borodino, in a huge, chaotic battle, and really, neither side wins a victory. Both sides claimed it, but it wasn't clear for either side.
France didn't proceed, but the Russians didn't break them either.
So now it's late autumn, and the Russians now call on their long-time ally, General Moroz. Moroz is "frost" in Russian.
Meaning, the Russian winter arrived. The French, had Moscow. But they had no supplies getting in, and the Russian government had pulled out. Left the empty city to the French. Who could do nothing with it of value.
Napoleon paused. For several weeks, as I recall, he vacillated. By the time he figured out that retreat was called for, it was too late. Winter had arrived.
Now they had to make that 2000-lm+ trek back to their start line, only this time with Russian Cossack cavalry harrying their every move, picking off stragglers, and generally pushing them to keep moving. People started to die in the cold, and of lack of supplies. They were strarving.
On and on the retreat went, more haggard every day, until a meagre total of 60,000 men struggled back to Poland and out of Russia. Napoleon had been defeated; the Russian myth of invincibility was born.
The crucial part of this myth: they didn't talk about the fact that it had only been possible because they were defending the whole time. They retreated, trading land for time, luring the French to go too far, and let the winter sort them out along with the partisan activity crushing their supply lines, keeping their troops awake all night, and things like that.
All in all, a miserable time for the Emperor of France.
Fast forward 130 years. 1941, June 22.
Russia is hit with a "surprise" invasion by their nominal allies, the Germans.
3/10
1941, then. The Germans invade. A brutal invasion, murderous, civilians butchered, horrific scenes. No quarter given on either side. Initially, the invasion proceeds relatively well for the Germans, but as the summer wore on, their progress was slowed, until they found themselves in the same spot as Napoleon. They even fought a major battle on more or less the same ground as the French and Russians had in 1812 (Borodino).
And again, the Germans stalled, as the French had, when the weather turned as they got close to Moscow.
General Moroz awoke, and began to drive them back, starving and freezing.
This was the high tide point for Germany in the east: they'd never get here again.
Huge sacrifice by the Soviets and some clever manoeuvres meant that the German army at Stalingrad (modern Volgograd) was surrounded, and under Hitler's stupid "no retreat" orders, were eventually starved into submission, the 6th Army being captured in tatters.
Back started the movement, with the Soviets pressing hard all the way. All the way back to Berlin, in the end, where the Soviets eventually raised their flag over the Reichstag.
Once again, the myth of invincibility was given a boost in Russian culture. Leaving aside the contributions of the various other Soviet republics, like Ukraine especially, the Russian mythmaking machine went into overdrive, coming to the conclusion that they had won the war.
Now that can be argued, but it's got a degree of truth. However, the contributions of a massive invasion to create a second front for the Germans definitely played a big part (that'd be your D-Day).
And there we are. The myth is complete. The Soviets/Russians are invincible. They threw back Napoleon, they threw back Hitler, nothing could stop them, clearly.
Seeing the issue yet? The invincibility was solely on defence, but it grew to be all-encompassing.
-
3/10
1941, then. The Germans invade. A brutal invasion, murderous, civilians butchered, horrific scenes. No quarter given on either side. Initially, the invasion proceeds relatively well for the Germans, but as the summer wore on, their progress was slowed, until they found themselves in the same spot as Napoleon. They even fought a major battle on more or less the same ground as the French and Russians had in 1812 (Borodino).
And again, the Germans stalled, as the French had, when the weather turned as they got close to Moscow.
General Moroz awoke, and began to drive them back, starving and freezing.
This was the high tide point for Germany in the east: they'd never get here again.
Huge sacrifice by the Soviets and some clever manoeuvres meant that the German army at Stalingrad (modern Volgograd) was surrounded, and under Hitler's stupid "no retreat" orders, were eventually starved into submission, the 6th Army being captured in tatters.
Back started the movement, with the Soviets pressing hard all the way. All the way back to Berlin, in the end, where the Soviets eventually raised their flag over the Reichstag.
Once again, the myth of invincibility was given a boost in Russian culture. Leaving aside the contributions of the various other Soviet republics, like Ukraine especially, the Russian mythmaking machine went into overdrive, coming to the conclusion that they had won the war.
Now that can be argued, but it's got a degree of truth. However, the contributions of a massive invasion to create a second front for the Germans definitely played a big part (that'd be your D-Day).
And there we are. The myth is complete. The Soviets/Russians are invincible. They threw back Napoleon, they threw back Hitler, nothing could stop them, clearly.
Seeing the issue yet? The invincibility was solely on defence, but it grew to be all-encompassing.
4/10
Right. Now forward to Russia, post-Soviet collapse. Putin eventually takes over, and in the service of his growing authoritarian regime, he builds up the myth of invincibility. Russia is destined to be an imperial superpower! Look how we threw back the invaders, twice, to their destruction!
So when Putin starts the open warfare in Ukraine (remembering he’d seized Crimea many years earlier, and the Little Green Men pseudo-invasion of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of Ukraine), he proclaimed that it would be done in three days. They put together a pretty slapdash plan, involving a push on two major fronts: one from Donbas/Luhansk, one towards Kyiv itself, including airborne troops landing at the airport to try and seize it.
Ukraine threw them back from there, pushed right back over the border near Kyiv, and eventually retaking Kharkiv and some other parts. Then the war ground to a more or less halt. The Russians couldn’t push forward any other way than slow, grinding assaults, pouring in men and machines as fast as they could to try and overwhelm the Ukrainian defence.
They managed to make slow, very slow, progress, until even that petered out. Three and a half years into the open phase of the war, they were stalled.
Which is when Ukraine got their strategy working for real.
They had been building up their ability to strike behind the Russian lines, while maintaining the front line as a stalemate. Supply lines were hit, reorg and rest areas were hit, railway lines, junctions, anything they could reach, to push the Russian supply lines to be longer. Frustrated by the restrictions on deep strikes by their weapons providers in the West, they began building their own deep strike assets.
-
4/10
Right. Now forward to Russia, post-Soviet collapse. Putin eventually takes over, and in the service of his growing authoritarian regime, he builds up the myth of invincibility. Russia is destined to be an imperial superpower! Look how we threw back the invaders, twice, to their destruction!
So when Putin starts the open warfare in Ukraine (remembering he’d seized Crimea many years earlier, and the Little Green Men pseudo-invasion of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of Ukraine), he proclaimed that it would be done in three days. They put together a pretty slapdash plan, involving a push on two major fronts: one from Donbas/Luhansk, one towards Kyiv itself, including airborne troops landing at the airport to try and seize it.
Ukraine threw them back from there, pushed right back over the border near Kyiv, and eventually retaking Kharkiv and some other parts. Then the war ground to a more or less halt. The Russians couldn’t push forward any other way than slow, grinding assaults, pouring in men and machines as fast as they could to try and overwhelm the Ukrainian defence.
They managed to make slow, very slow, progress, until even that petered out. Three and a half years into the open phase of the war, they were stalled.
Which is when Ukraine got their strategy working for real.
They had been building up their ability to strike behind the Russian lines, while maintaining the front line as a stalemate. Supply lines were hit, reorg and rest areas were hit, railway lines, junctions, anything they could reach, to push the Russian supply lines to be longer. Frustrated by the restrictions on deep strikes by their weapons providers in the West, they began building their own deep strike assets.
5/10
And so the war continued, no movement at all on the front lines, just endless meat-assaults by the Russians that tried to overwhelm the local troop concentrations with sheer numbers of targets, thinking some of them surely had to get through and damage the defenders. Ukraine calmly defended, retreating when absolutely necessary, preserving their forces as much as possible.
The strikes behind the lines got farther and farther behind the lines. The supply lines for Russian were now becoming unwieldy. And where Putin had tried desperately to insulate the Russian public from the war, here it was showing up on their doorsteps. Closer and closer to the industrial heartland.
Then a shift: the Ukrainians start hitting oil infrastructure. This meant they’d knock down a refinery, then a different one hundreds of km away, forcing the Russian engineering repair teams to be constantly on the move, catching up with the ongoing damage by Ukrainian strikes.
Supplies for those repairs began to dwindle, as the sanctions bit harder. Slowly, the Russian capacity to refine oil began to collapse. Recently, as much as 40% of the refining capacity was offline at once. That has two effects on Russia.
1) They can't refine oil for the whole domestic economy as much as they need.
2) Since the Ukrainians were also hitting export facilities, they couldn't as easily sell their oil, the only real method they had left of bringing in currency they could buy sanctions-busting equipment with.
The war has been extremely expensive for Russia. It has nearly wiped out their foreign currency reserves (built up by Putin over several years), and they're now financing the war by selling "bonds" to Russian banks, which are not allowed to refuse to buy them.
These bonds are being priced right now at 16% interest and up. That's a HUGE number.
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5/10
And so the war continued, no movement at all on the front lines, just endless meat-assaults by the Russians that tried to overwhelm the local troop concentrations with sheer numbers of targets, thinking some of them surely had to get through and damage the defenders. Ukraine calmly defended, retreating when absolutely necessary, preserving their forces as much as possible.
The strikes behind the lines got farther and farther behind the lines. The supply lines for Russian were now becoming unwieldy. And where Putin had tried desperately to insulate the Russian public from the war, here it was showing up on their doorsteps. Closer and closer to the industrial heartland.
Then a shift: the Ukrainians start hitting oil infrastructure. This meant they’d knock down a refinery, then a different one hundreds of km away, forcing the Russian engineering repair teams to be constantly on the move, catching up with the ongoing damage by Ukrainian strikes.
Supplies for those repairs began to dwindle, as the sanctions bit harder. Slowly, the Russian capacity to refine oil began to collapse. Recently, as much as 40% of the refining capacity was offline at once. That has two effects on Russia.
1) They can't refine oil for the whole domestic economy as much as they need.
2) Since the Ukrainians were also hitting export facilities, they couldn't as easily sell their oil, the only real method they had left of bringing in currency they could buy sanctions-busting equipment with.
The war has been extremely expensive for Russia. It has nearly wiped out their foreign currency reserves (built up by Putin over several years), and they're now financing the war by selling "bonds" to Russian banks, which are not allowed to refuse to buy them.
These bonds are being priced right now at 16% interest and up. That's a HUGE number.
6/10
Okay. We're nearly there.
As the restrictions on deep strikes are loosened, Ukraine also strikes airfield after airfield, forcing the Russians to stage their aircraft further and further from the front lines. See what I mean about artificially extending Russia's supply lines?
With the reduced refining capacity, and the longer flights, the Russian air force is largely neutered at this poiint.
Also, importantly, gas shortages are now affecting the whole country, right back to the place they really didn't want them to affect: Moscow and Piter.
The Russian civilians are by now getting a taste of war on their doorstep, and they're not loving it. Maybe this Special Military Operation isn't quite as automatic a victory as they'd been told?
Putin ramps up oppression. Cuts down Internet access. Bans apps that aren't Russian-made. Some can still use them, but it's a big blow to public confidence.
It's still quiet on the home front, because Russia's regime is nothing if not brutal in its repression of dissent. But it's a different kind of quiet. A waiting quiet.
It's becoming harder and harder to find new bodies to feed into the grinder. Russia can no longer afford to offer huge signing bonuses (many of which never get paid, through bureaucratic dodges and such). Local police begin sweeping up anyone they can conceivably pin a petty crime on, the punishment for which is either Siberia or Ukraine.
Meanwhile, they've fully converted to a war economy. No civilian goods are being made, basically; all production goes to war materiel. A false dawn appears economically: the rise of military spending boosts a sick economy. But it's not productive spending: it's lliterally blowing your money up by the billions. Trillions in rubles.
The economy is falling apart. They can't cook the books anymore to hide it.
-
6/10
Okay. We're nearly there.
As the restrictions on deep strikes are loosened, Ukraine also strikes airfield after airfield, forcing the Russians to stage their aircraft further and further from the front lines. See what I mean about artificially extending Russia's supply lines?
With the reduced refining capacity, and the longer flights, the Russian air force is largely neutered at this poiint.
Also, importantly, gas shortages are now affecting the whole country, right back to the place they really didn't want them to affect: Moscow and Piter.
The Russian civilians are by now getting a taste of war on their doorstep, and they're not loving it. Maybe this Special Military Operation isn't quite as automatic a victory as they'd been told?
Putin ramps up oppression. Cuts down Internet access. Bans apps that aren't Russian-made. Some can still use them, but it's a big blow to public confidence.
It's still quiet on the home front, because Russia's regime is nothing if not brutal in its repression of dissent. But it's a different kind of quiet. A waiting quiet.
It's becoming harder and harder to find new bodies to feed into the grinder. Russia can no longer afford to offer huge signing bonuses (many of which never get paid, through bureaucratic dodges and such). Local police begin sweeping up anyone they can conceivably pin a petty crime on, the punishment for which is either Siberia or Ukraine.
Meanwhile, they've fully converted to a war economy. No civilian goods are being made, basically; all production goes to war materiel. A false dawn appears economically: the rise of military spending boosts a sick economy. But it's not productive spending: it's lliterally blowing your money up by the billions. Trillions in rubles.
The economy is falling apart. They can't cook the books anymore to hide it.
7/10
Right, so we're more or less up to date with where it is now.
Why do I think it will end soon?
Because the money has run out. They're using increasingly extreme measures to bolster the war chest, snaking cash from oligarchs to "show their patriotism". Forcing banks to turn over their deposits to the regime. Customers' money.
Obviously, this cannot continue forever.
We are now in a spot where Russia cannot move frorward. But they can't retreat, either, because Putin will order executions of people who take even one step back (shades of Hitler, huh?).
Putin, meanwhile, is well aware that if he loses the war, or accepts a ceasefire or worse a peace deal that doesn't give him control of Ukraine, he's finished. He'll be deposed or betrayed by someone with enough force to make it stick, and he'll end up either dead or fleeing the country to somewhere he can be safe. Probably the Gulf States. Where he can live in peace with his vast hoard of stolen Russian money. Because would you give odds that he's let all those oligarchs plunder the treasury without getting some of the action himself? That he's willing to let oligarchs have more money than he gets?
No way. I feel confident in suggesting he's squirreled away amounts that make any two or three oligarchs pale in comparison.
So they can't move forward. Can't move back. Can't stop the Ukrainians' relentless strikes on their oil infrastructure. With the recent addition of real-time satellite intel from the US about Russia's back areas, Ukraine have become even more effective at avoiding the sparse remaining air defences.
The Ukrainians, then, with sheer brilliance, have manufactured the classic Russian defence strategy, *without* trading a couple of thousand km of their land in doing it.
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7/10
Right, so we're more or less up to date with where it is now.
Why do I think it will end soon?
Because the money has run out. They're using increasingly extreme measures to bolster the war chest, snaking cash from oligarchs to "show their patriotism". Forcing banks to turn over their deposits to the regime. Customers' money.
Obviously, this cannot continue forever.
We are now in a spot where Russia cannot move frorward. But they can't retreat, either, because Putin will order executions of people who take even one step back (shades of Hitler, huh?).
Putin, meanwhile, is well aware that if he loses the war, or accepts a ceasefire or worse a peace deal that doesn't give him control of Ukraine, he's finished. He'll be deposed or betrayed by someone with enough force to make it stick, and he'll end up either dead or fleeing the country to somewhere he can be safe. Probably the Gulf States. Where he can live in peace with his vast hoard of stolen Russian money. Because would you give odds that he's let all those oligarchs plunder the treasury without getting some of the action himself? That he's willing to let oligarchs have more money than he gets?
No way. I feel confident in suggesting he's squirreled away amounts that make any two or three oligarchs pale in comparison.
So they can't move forward. Can't move back. Can't stop the Ukrainians' relentless strikes on their oil infrastructure. With the recent addition of real-time satellite intel from the US about Russia's back areas, Ukraine have become even more effective at avoiding the sparse remaining air defences.
The Ukrainians, then, with sheer brilliance, have manufactured the classic Russian defence strategy, *without* trading a couple of thousand km of their land in doing it.
9/10
It feels like a military inevitability at this point. That the Russian troops are near to break point, and some small impetus can push them over the line into a rabble fleeing the war, instead of a formed force.
The Ukrainians won’t be able to just sweep forward and take their land back, of course. The Russians have been flattening everything between the Russian border and the front lines, building minefields, and all kinds of nastiness. It will take time for Ukraine to carefully move forward and occupy the abandoned Russian positions, and more time to push the borders back where they started ten or more years ago.
There. That’s it. That’s my entire thesis here.
I believe the final blow will be when Europe finally seizes the money frozen in European banks that is nominally Russian. That 300 billion will become, I expect, the Rebuilding Fund for the start of Ukraine’s return to normalcy.
And make no mistake. They had help in supplied weapons to be sure. That helped them stabilize the lines, and keep the Russians held still. Then they kicked their brain trust into gear, and started flat-out outthinking the Russians.
This is, in the end, going to be a Ukrainian victory. Helped by allies, to be sure, but they’re the ones who have paid in blood and lives and ruined cities, and they’re the ones who I believe deserve the credit for the victory I see them compiling. This war will be studied endlessly for its tactical innovations, AND strategic innovations, showing ways in which a smart smaller country can ju-jitsu a much larger country into losing itself the war it started.
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9/10
It feels like a military inevitability at this point. That the Russian troops are near to break point, and some small impetus can push them over the line into a rabble fleeing the war, instead of a formed force.
The Ukrainians won’t be able to just sweep forward and take their land back, of course. The Russians have been flattening everything between the Russian border and the front lines, building minefields, and all kinds of nastiness. It will take time for Ukraine to carefully move forward and occupy the abandoned Russian positions, and more time to push the borders back where they started ten or more years ago.
There. That’s it. That’s my entire thesis here.
I believe the final blow will be when Europe finally seizes the money frozen in European banks that is nominally Russian. That 300 billion will become, I expect, the Rebuilding Fund for the start of Ukraine’s return to normalcy.
And make no mistake. They had help in supplied weapons to be sure. That helped them stabilize the lines, and keep the Russians held still. Then they kicked their brain trust into gear, and started flat-out outthinking the Russians.
This is, in the end, going to be a Ukrainian victory. Helped by allies, to be sure, but they’re the ones who have paid in blood and lives and ruined cities, and they’re the ones who I believe deserve the credit for the victory I see them compiling. This war will be studied endlessly for its tactical innovations, AND strategic innovations, showing ways in which a smart smaller country can ju-jitsu a much larger country into losing itself the war it started.
10/10
In the end, Ukraine is now one of the predominantly skilled military forces in Europe. They will make a lot of money after the war, sending their troops to teach the rest of NATO to fight the Ukrainian way.
And Russia? Well, Russia may well end up breaking apart. Independence movements are making unusual amounts of noise in the East, Siberia and several other regions as well. And Russia no longer has the troops to quell those movements effectively. Or the gas to get them there. Or the money to pay them.
It might well be that the Russian empire completely vanishes in a puff of Putin’s hubris.
Happy to hear critiques. I can be wrong about things, I concede. These are predictions, based on the progress of the situation, and what information I’ve been able to gather from various sources. Obviously, predictions are only as good as they turn out to be accurate.
So maybe I will look like a fool in four months, when Russia busts a move and suddenly rushes forward?
But I’m pretty confident that won’t be the case.
Fin.
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10/10
In the end, Ukraine is now one of the predominantly skilled military forces in Europe. They will make a lot of money after the war, sending their troops to teach the rest of NATO to fight the Ukrainian way.
And Russia? Well, Russia may well end up breaking apart. Independence movements are making unusual amounts of noise in the East, Siberia and several other regions as well. And Russia no longer has the troops to quell those movements effectively. Or the gas to get them there. Or the money to pay them.
It might well be that the Russian empire completely vanishes in a puff of Putin’s hubris.
Happy to hear critiques. I can be wrong about things, I concede. These are predictions, based on the progress of the situation, and what information I’ve been able to gather from various sources. Obviously, predictions are only as good as they turn out to be accurate.
So maybe I will look like a fool in four months, when Russia busts a move and suddenly rushes forward?
But I’m pretty confident that won’t be the case.
Fin.
@oldladyplays very interesting thread, thank you very much. I share your hope, but I fear it won't be that fast either, because of China's financial (and, for what it matters, NK's personnel) contribution to Russia's war efforts.
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