#Poland PISM analyst Daniel Szeligowski on #Russia & #Ukraine "peace negotiations"
Let's get some basic facts straight again, or who is "going to have to get moving" and come to the negotiating table.
In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, led by a pro-Russian president, with around 70% of the population opposed to NATO membership. Yet Russia violated Ukraine's neutrality, annexed Crimea, and then launched a covert invasion in eastern Ukraine.
Petro Poroshenko won 2014 presidential election after campaigning on a settlement with Russia and preserving a special status for the Russian language. He was initially sceptical about NATO membership and emphasized Ukraine had to rely primarily on its own army to ensure security.
Volodymyr Zelensky also won the presidency promising compromise with Russia - with politically naive statements to stop the shooting, sit down with Putin, and talk. He was even more sceptical about NATO membership than Poroshenko, once saying he never visits anyone unless invited.
Zelensky went to the Paris summit with Putin in December 2019 with a conciliatory position. He genuinely wanted to reach an agreement and was ready to make concessions. Later on, he negotiated multiple ceasefires, and even began withdrawing troops from the then front line.
Zelensky was also ready to drop Ukraine's NATO bid in exchange for a Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine's territory, and talks were already underway before 2022. Yet Putin still launched a full-scale invasion.
A few hours before the Russian attack, on the night of 23/24 February 2022, Zelensky called the Kremlin to propose negotiations once again. But no one picked up. Predictably, Putin chose war over diplomacy.
Immediately after the invasion, Zelensky declared readiness to negotiate with Russia without any preconditions. Instead of accepting the offer, Putin sent his stooge Medinsky to present Ukraine with what amounted to a capitulation ultimatum.
In the first weeks of the invasion, Zelensky repeatedly signaled readiness to drop Ukraine's NATO bid, but sought international security guarantees. Yet Putin demanded Russia be consulted before any assistance is given to Ukraine in case of aggression, and he broke off the talks.
Putin has so far shown no willingness to compromise with Ukraine. His war aims remain maximalist - subjugating Ukraine and changing its regime. He seeks Ukraine's partition and turning what remains into a Russian protectorate. He has absolutely no real interest in Donbas.
The U.S. side's messaging on peace talks is pure abstraction - it amounts to an attempt to construct a parallel reality. Putin has not changed his position on compromise with Ukraine, and the supposed technical concessions are meant to mislead inexperienced American negotiators.
Zelensky has repeatedly shown readiness to negotiate, from early compromise offers to dropping the NATO bid. Ukraine has come to the table more than once. It is Putin who must eventually come to the table, yet current U.S. policy signals to him that he still doesn't have to.
Source: https://xcancel.com/dszeligowski/status/2024100117280690270?s=20
