Trump took this district by 17%.

[swelljoe@mas.to]

Trump won this district by 17%. There's a town called White Settlement in this district. It's a very red suburb of Forth Worth, considered a safe Republican seat in the Texas Senate.

I can't stop reloading the page. The gap has widened since I started watching.

[swelljoe@mas.to]

lol. lmfao.

[swelljoe@mas.to]

A 31 point swing for a "safe" red district seems like a big deal. Democrats have a candidate for every state and federal race on the ballot in 2026, and this year might be Blexas, at least 10 years earlier than most people expected. Maybe you can't declare open war on Latinos and still win Texas. 🤷

[swelljoe@mas.to]

Is that good?

[swelljoe@mas.to]

I'm realistic about Texas. It's gerrymandered all to hell, it is extremely stacked in favor of Republicans. I'm not very confident the balance of power will change, but I am 100% confident that there are a bunch of Texas Republicans shitting themselves tonight looking at this race and imagining the bloodbath that's coming.

They've been assuming Democrats running in every race was a gimmick. They didn't expect to have to fight in every race, and now they know they can't count on anything.

[swelljoe@mas.to]

I hope this also means that the national Democratic party takes Blexas seriously. The state party, and a lot of candidates, have stepped up. If national leadership puts the resources in, it could completely change the shape of the nation. Without Texas, Republicans simply can't win the White House.

Did Republicans get out over their skis? Did they gerrymander away safe margins in a comfortable majority of districts into risky ones for a slightly larger majority?

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/12/17/texas-democrats-down-ballot-2026/

[swelljoe@mas.to]

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/01/30/texas-senate-district-9-runoff-rehmet-wambsganss-special-election/