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undefined Christine Lemmer-Webber shared this topic on
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
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I mean, look at this shit. I wouldn't buy any of these companies right now, though I think Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Google, and Netflix, will be OK even when AI crashes. They have real businesses that make money, AI is just a side quest for them. They'll fall, but not crash.
But, Nvidia? Tesla? Huge exposure to AI and no way to justify their valuations if absolutely absurd SciFi things don't come to pass.
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Getting all the shares available under this package over the next 10 years would be the equivalent of earning US$275m a day.
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@az I mean, that's kind of why I buy index funds and forget about it. Over a long enough period the stock market as a whole has always returned better than you'd get from an interest-bearing savings account, CD, or savings bond. So, indexes are, given a large enough window of time, always the smart and safe investment.
But, sometimes, the market goes fucking insane. It did it in 2008. And, I'm pretty confident it's doing it again now, and I think the end is nigh.
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Another "too early" one, recently: I sold ARM at $133. I made a good profit, but too soon, I could have made more. But, I didn't believe in the AI story, and still don't, so I sold in February of 2024, just a few months after I bought it (and paid for short-term gains on my taxes!).
I almost sold everything tech back then because of lack of faith in the fairy story investors and tech leaders are telling themselves and the public to keep the money machine printing. But, I told myself: Too soon.
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I am mostly a "buy index funds and forget about it forever" investor. I'm good at picking stocks, at least within my areas of expertise, and I'm OK at knowing when to sell (again, often too early). But, I don't find joy in it, so I don't want to think about investment all the time. So, indexes it is. This has done OK for me. I've made decent money on my retirement account over the handful of years I've had enough money to spare to invest in a retirement account.
But, my gut is yelling "crash".
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@GustavinoBevilacqua sarebbe una visione da cura Ludovico per Alexander DeLarge
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I have been right but too early many times.
e.g. I divested from crypto in 2018, for many reasons, but for the point of this toot, bc it was obvious it was all a scam, siphoning money from retail investors to the folks controlling the exchanges (and thus the trading prices, since wash trading was and is rampant). But, that was way too early. The bottom still hasn't fallen out, and the scam is still not obvious to everyone.
Is it too early to sell all index funds that predominantly hold tech?
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@ireneista I'm sure there's also a significant amount of cultural inertia at work where people are conditioned from a young age to see hierarchies as the natural default way for humans to self-organize and maybe also to believe that you don't need to know how to be a good leader to be a productive member of society
