Tomorrow's gonna be a bad day on the US #StockMarket.
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Tomorrow's gonna be a bad day on the US #StockMarket. It ended down today and Asian markets are dropping right now.
> Morning Bid: Pyrotechnics in stocks and US elections. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-05/
> Asian stocks jolted by valuation fears, tech sector hit hard. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-05/
Softbank is down nearly -11% as I type this. And apparently that's a bounce from -14%.
European stocks are joining the selloff in early trading…
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Tomorrow's gonna be a bad day on the US #StockMarket. It ended down today and Asian markets are dropping right now.
> Morning Bid: Pyrotechnics in stocks and US elections. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-05/
> Asian stocks jolted by valuation fears, tech sector hit hard. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-05/
Softbank is down nearly -11% as I type this. And apparently that's a bounce from -14%.
European stocks are joining the selloff in early trading…
Update: Looks like I was wrong. Values recovered overnight and are even up a bit today. But opinions about why they dropped – and why they rallied – are all over the map.
> Don't panic yet, investors say, as high-flying AI stocks tumble. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-ai-selloff-pix-2025-11-05/
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Update: Looks like I was wrong. Values recovered overnight and are even up a bit today. But opinions about why they dropped – and why they rallied – are all over the map.
> Don't panic yet, investors say, as high-flying AI stocks tumble. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-ai-selloff-pix-2025-11-05/
Today's #bubblewatch update:
AND … The market is going back down again.
> Wall Street down, dragged by tech on worries about valuations, economy. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-qualcomm-dips-focus-economic-data-2025-11-06/
> " U.S. stocks turned lower on Thursday, approaching two-week lows with a resumption of Tuesday's tech selloff as investors contended with mounting economic uncertainty and stretched valuations."
(Should I make the bubblewatch update a regular thing?)
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Today's #bubblewatch update:
AND … The market is going back down again.
> Wall Street down, dragged by tech on worries about valuations, economy. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-qualcomm-dips-focus-economic-data-2025-11-06/
> " U.S. stocks turned lower on Thursday, approaching two-week lows with a resumption of Tuesday's tech selloff as investors contended with mounting economic uncertainty and stretched valuations."
(Should I make the bubblewatch update a regular thing?)
More (big short on AI):
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More (big short on AI):
Nov 7 #bubblewatch update:
Market down a second day. The Nasdaq Composite is again seeing the biggest drop.
> Wall Street tumbles as concerns over economy, tech valuations weigh. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-struggle-traction-end-wobbly-week-2025-11-07/
> "Wall Street's main indexes extended losses to a second session on Friday, and were set for weekly declines, as concerns about the economy and sky-high valuations in the technology sector soured sentiment."
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Nov 7 #bubblewatch update:
Market down a second day. The Nasdaq Composite is again seeing the biggest drop.
> Wall Street tumbles as concerns over economy, tech valuations weigh. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-struggle-traction-end-wobbly-week-2025-11-07/
> "Wall Street's main indexes extended losses to a second session on Friday, and were set for weekly declines, as concerns about the economy and sky-high valuations in the technology sector soured sentiment."
More:
I'm beginning to think SoftBank will be the first #AI #bubble brick to tumble. They took a huge hit earlier this week and then again overnight.
> SoftBank Group logs almost $50 billion in weekly losses as investors sour on AI plays. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/07/softbank-shares-ai-linked-stocks-asia-valuation-concerns.html
> “SoftBank Group’s shares are falling as many bought it as the only listed proxy for OpenAI,” said David Gibson, senior research analyst at financial services firm MST Financial.
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More:
I'm beginning to think SoftBank will be the first #AI #bubble brick to tumble. They took a huge hit earlier this week and then again overnight.
> SoftBank Group logs almost $50 billion in weekly losses as investors sour on AI plays. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/07/softbank-shares-ai-linked-stocks-asia-valuation-concerns.html
> “SoftBank Group’s shares are falling as many bought it as the only listed proxy for OpenAI,” said David Gibson, senior research analyst at financial services firm MST Financial.
New #bubblewatch tomorrow, as markets open overnight.
In the meantime, Today I Learned #TIL about the 'Hindenburg Omen'.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
This is a market technical analysis pattern, which supposedly predicts stock market crashes. It happens when some stocks hit new highs and others hit new lows simultaneously.
*Apparently this happened three times last week.*
Something else to watch for tomorrow morning…
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New #bubblewatch tomorrow, as markets open overnight.
In the meantime, Today I Learned #TIL about the 'Hindenburg Omen'.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
This is a market technical analysis pattern, which supposedly predicts stock market crashes. It happens when some stocks hit new highs and others hit new lows simultaneously.
*Apparently this happened three times last week.*
Something else to watch for tomorrow morning…
Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!
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Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!
Tuesday 11-11 #bubblewatch
Aaaaannd the #AI #bubble roller coaster is going back down.
> S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as AI valuation worries resurface. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-retreat-tech-concerns-resurface-federal-reopening-awaited-2025-11-11/
To answer yesterday's question? I'm going with, "Some investors were buying the dip." But I might change that to 'Extinction Burst' if we see daily peaks and valleys like this for another week.
In related news, SoftBank is making a weird move. Read the whole conversation here:
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Tuesday 11-11 #bubblewatch
Aaaaannd the #AI #bubble roller coaster is going back down.
> S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as AI valuation worries resurface. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-retreat-tech-concerns-resurface-federal-reopening-awaited-2025-11-11/
To answer yesterday's question? I'm going with, "Some investors were buying the dip." But I might change that to 'Extinction Burst' if we see daily peaks and valleys like this for another week.
In related news, SoftBank is making a weird move. Read the whole conversation here:
Wednesday 11-12 #bubblewatch
Today the roller coaster is going around a long curve.
> Wall St mixed as investors offload tech stocks; federal reopening anticipated. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-stock-futures-advance-investors-cheer-possible-end-federal-shutdown-2025-11-12/
Dow Jones is up to record numbers, tech stocks are down – including some of the biggest players. I mentioned the 'Hindenburg Omen' up thread and this is what it looks like: smart(er) money fleeing from risk to hopefully safe havens.
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Wednesday 11-12 #bubblewatch
Today the roller coaster is going around a long curve.
> Wall St mixed as investors offload tech stocks; federal reopening anticipated. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-stock-futures-advance-investors-cheer-possible-end-federal-shutdown-2025-11-12/
Dow Jones is up to record numbers, tech stocks are down – including some of the biggest players. I mentioned the 'Hindenburg Omen' up thread and this is what it looks like: smart(er) money fleeing from risk to hopefully safe havens.
Thursday 11-13 #bubblewatch
To extend the roller coaster metaphor yet again, this morning it's got to that point where it quickly goes over a series of small spikes and dips.
> Wall Street sinks as investors fret about rate cuts. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-futures-muted-traders-await-data-after-federal-reopen-2025-11-13/
Trading is, as they say, 'mixed'.
In related news:
> Michael Burry of 'Big Short' fame deregisters Scion Asset Management. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/michael-burry-big-short-fame-deregisters-scion-asset-management-2025-11-13/
IOW? Burry is 'going dark' to keep others from watching his short bets on the market.
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Thursday 11-13 #bubblewatch
To extend the roller coaster metaphor yet again, this morning it's got to that point where it quickly goes over a series of small spikes and dips.
> Wall Street sinks as investors fret about rate cuts. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-futures-muted-traders-await-data-after-federal-reopen-2025-11-13/
Trading is, as they say, 'mixed'.
In related news:
> Michael Burry of 'Big Short' fame deregisters Scion Asset Management. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/michael-burry-big-short-fame-deregisters-scion-asset-management-2025-11-13/
IOW? Burry is 'going dark' to keep others from watching his short bets on the market.
Update:
After wobbling a bit in the morning, the market is closing WAY down and across the board, with even the Dow Jones booking a 1.6% decline. Tech stocks declined much more, continuing a slide from yesterday's lower values. Nvidia alone is down big, but other A-related stocks are showing huge drops.
> Wall Street drops to one of its worst days since April on worries about AI stocks and interest rates. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-trump-government-shutdown-c388d97a4e4acf5cca538fd901e46b2d
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Update:
After wobbling a bit in the morning, the market is closing WAY down and across the board, with even the Dow Jones booking a 1.6% decline. Tech stocks declined much more, continuing a slide from yesterday's lower values. Nvidia alone is down big, but other A-related stocks are showing huge drops.
> Wall Street drops to one of its worst days since April on worries about AI stocks and interest rates. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-trump-government-shutdown-c388d97a4e4acf5cca538fd901e46b2d
Related worrying news:
> U.S. Foreclosure Activity Posts Eighth Straight Month of Year-Over-Year Increases. https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/october-2025-foreclosure-market-report/
October alone saw a 20% jump in foreclosure filings. Completed foreclosures are up 32%.
This is so significant it *has* to be a signal for *something*. But I don't know enough to say for what…
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Related worrying news:
> U.S. Foreclosure Activity Posts Eighth Straight Month of Year-Over-Year Increases. https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/october-2025-foreclosure-market-report/
October alone saw a 20% jump in foreclosure filings. Completed foreclosures are up 32%.
This is so significant it *has* to be a signal for *something*. But I don't know enough to say for what…
Friday 11-14 #bubblewatch
I'm staying with the roller coaster metaphor, because after yesterday's across-the-board selloff, today the market is rising across-the-board.
> S&P 500 climbs after selloff; traders look to Nvidia report. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-drop-fading-december-rate-cut-expectations-2025-11-14/
The talk right now is all about the Nvidia earnings report. The problem with that? It's going *look* good because of all those circular deals. The real question is 'Net Profit' and those circular deals don't generate profit.
ETA: Not P/E.
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Friday 11-14 #bubblewatch
I'm staying with the roller coaster metaphor, because after yesterday's across-the-board selloff, today the market is rising across-the-board.
> S&P 500 climbs after selloff; traders look to Nvidia report. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-futures-drop-fading-december-rate-cut-expectations-2025-11-14/
The talk right now is all about the Nvidia earnings report. The problem with that? It's going *look* good because of all those circular deals. The real question is 'Net Profit' and those circular deals don't generate profit.
ETA: Not P/E.
Monday 11-17 #bubblewatch
When the insiders start pulling out, you know you have a bubble.
> Peter Thiel dumps entire Nvidia stake, slashes Tesla holdings amid bubble fears. https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/peter-thiel-dumps-entire-nvidia-stake-slashes-tesla-holdings-amid-bubble-fears-4320129
(Apparently Thiel has been doing it the sneaky way since July.)
Meanwhile today's market is mixed.
> Wall Street fluctuates ahead of Nvidia results, government data. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-markets-await-nvidia-earnings-government-data-2025-11-17/
Coming this week: Nvidia's earnings report and the US jobs report.
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Monday 11-17 #bubblewatch
When the insiders start pulling out, you know you have a bubble.
> Peter Thiel dumps entire Nvidia stake, slashes Tesla holdings amid bubble fears. https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/peter-thiel-dumps-entire-nvidia-stake-slashes-tesla-holdings-amid-bubble-fears-4320129
(Apparently Thiel has been doing it the sneaky way since July.)
Meanwhile today's market is mixed.
> Wall Street fluctuates ahead of Nvidia results, government data. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-markets-await-nvidia-earnings-government-data-2025-11-17/
Coming this week: Nvidia's earnings report and the US jobs report.
Tuesday 11-18 #bubblewatch
It appears the market is expecting bad news from both the Nvidia earnings report tomorrow and the official US government economic figures out Thursday.
> U.S. stocks extend sell-off, Treasury yields drop as valuation worries weigh on risk appetite. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-18/
Again we are seeing money flee from tech and #crypto to blue chip industrials and other 'safe havens'. Forex, US Treasury bond yields are down, meaning more people are bidding on them.
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This child has a plastic bag over her head and mouth, and her mom just yells at her about dry cleaning and sends her off to keep playing with the bag. It was a different time.
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And, half an episode in, I really think some murdering would improve things. These men are terrible.
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@bryan dementia would suck, but I'm hoping they'll have that figured out by the time I get there. They seem to have some pretty good leads. Shingles is strongly linked to cognitive decline, for instance, and I guess the vaccine protects against that.
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@swelljoe I’ve never smoked and will not start. I’m happy to be a healthy dementia patient over an early preventable death.
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@bryan survivorship bias survives on survivor anecdotes. My grandmother, a lifelong smoker, died when she was about 60 from lung cancer. No dementia, though, she had that going for her. Entirely aware all the way to the end.
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@mariosiniscalchi beh puoi vedere tutto sulla pagina del progetto Matrix
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@swelljoe
My grandmother quit smoking when she was 70-ish. She stated her habit of smoking daily at 12. Anyway, at 70, she was taking care of her mother at the time. Her mother (my great-grandmother) spent the last 10 years of her life with dementia.
The experience made my grandmother decide she’d rather be dead than “talk like a fool”. So she started to smoke again. She passed many years later and never had dementia.
