@glyph Did you quote post something?
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@glyph “Front-loading a massive amount of conceptual complexity to accommodate the problems of hyper-scalers is a common mistake.” 🥳
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@bitprophet you're the first one to catch that (I guarantee it hurt more to write than it does to read :))
@glyph @bitprophet yet we are only 24% into the century
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@glyph It's a great blog post, but I think we often recognize "big" things in retrospect rather than as they are coming. Nobody really considered the Internet "big" when it was first being put together. Nobody considered Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc. to be "big" either.
The behavior of VCs is based on this evidence. And I don't think they're wrong for it either.
Maybe this is it for "big things", maybe not. Who knows? Just enjoy the ride for the next century, I guess. 😄
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@glyph It's a great blog post, but I think we often recognize "big" things in retrospect rather than as they are coming. Nobody really considered the Internet "big" when it was first being put together. Nobody considered Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc. to be "big" either.
The behavior of VCs is based on this evidence. And I don't think they're wrong for it either.
Maybe this is it for "big things", maybe not. Who knows? Just enjoy the ride for the next century, I guess. 😄
@glyph To be clear, your general advice about building small-scale things is still good. It makes everything a lot easier. Simplicity ironically often leads to clean and scalable software.
(Sometimes the problem domain makes that hard, though. 😦)
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@glyph It's obviously a very different kind of tool, but Homebrew solves this problem, no?
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@glyph It's obviously a very different kind of tool, but Homebrew solves this problem, no?
@lynnntropy Nowhere near as comprehensively. Relatively little software is available as casks.
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@glyph i keep thinking an example of things built for a too-large, non-personal scale is current state of Unix-likes and main distros thereof. It seems to me we now once again lack readymade installable setups suitable for hardened personal/small-business VM deployment, and we keep requiring lots of expert knowledge from anyone choosing to nowadays exist independently in the hostile web. Also replied on it elsewhere: awawa.cat/notice/B1qyfkwUVjGenI9fNI
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@glyph @bitprophet yet we are only 24% into the century
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@glyph the main things I would have remarked on in this vein would be that footnotes 2+3 seem out of order to me, and ZIRP isn't defined (or a definition linked to)
Otherwise? Another banger. Especially like the call to action to be prepared for the free-money party in "AI" to come to an end, it's wild seeing how few developers going in for the technology are acknowledging this inevitability.
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@glyph the main things I would have remarked on in this vein would be that footnotes 2+3 seem out of order to me, and ZIRP isn't defined (or a definition linked to)
Otherwise? Another banger. Especially like the call to action to be prepared for the free-money party in "AI" to come to an end, it's wild seeing how few developers going in for the technology are acknowledging this inevitability.
@SnoopJ thanks for the feedback, I did in fact fail to run my footnote fixing script this time. Not sure if I should update it given that it would swap the link targets now … but I can add an Investopedia for ZIRP or something:)
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@SnoopJ thanks for the feedback, I did in fact fail to run my footnote fixing script this time. Not sure if I should update it given that it would swap the link targets now … but I can add an Investopedia for ZIRP or something:)
@glyph yea, I wouldn't go to any trouble to adjust it, but I did notice it :)
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@glyph Isn't "Story 1" (small team, speculative product) the classic case for portfolio funding across multiple bets, perhaps in some product area where your investors have expertise?
When a bet fails or doesn't zoom upward, you know something more about the management and staff and whether you might want them on a new project, or perhaps you have a story for merging overlapping proposals to better cover a segment. (my previous employer was two start-ups merged by private capital and sold to a larger company as a unit).
Story 2 does seem like "too much capital, not enough investment staff and expertise" and it leans toward cornering territory rather than creating new value.
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@glyph Isn't "Story 1" (small team, speculative product) the classic case for portfolio funding across multiple bets, perhaps in some product area where your investors have expertise?
When a bet fails or doesn't zoom upward, you know something more about the management and staff and whether you might want them on a new project, or perhaps you have a story for merging overlapping proposals to better cover a segment. (my previous employer was two start-ups merged by private capital and sold to a larger company as a unit).
Story 2 does seem like "too much capital, not enough investment staff and expertise" and it leans toward cornering territory rather than creating new value.
@jmeowmeow arguably the entire *point* of VC is to finance story 1, because public markets are supposed to be holding the larger pools of capital and financing story 2 with large, mature businesses.
But public capital markets have fallen apart due to a toxic combination of pervasive fraud and highly gameable regulation. Most capital is allocated in barely-regulated private market gambling now, which means there's too much money in those markets, which makes VCs unwilling to bet on story 1.
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@jmeowmeow arguably the entire *point* of VC is to finance story 1, because public markets are supposed to be holding the larger pools of capital and financing story 2 with large, mature businesses.
But public capital markets have fallen apart due to a toxic combination of pervasive fraud and highly gameable regulation. Most capital is allocated in barely-regulated private market gambling now, which means there's too much money in those markets, which makes VCs unwilling to bet on story 1.
@jmeowmeow What's happening with private markets right now is that when you're chasing story 2, what you're supposed to be looking at is the *existing unit economics* and scaling them up, with the benefit of extensive reporting requirements that allows sophisticated investors to evaluate the plausibility of that scaling, distributed across the processing power of the entire public market
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@jmeowmeow What's happening with private markets right now is that when you're chasing story 2, what you're supposed to be looking at is the *existing unit economics* and scaling them up, with the benefit of extensive reporting requirements that allows sophisticated investors to evaluate the plausibility of that scaling, distributed across the processing power of the entire public market
@jmeowmeow instead, we now have a version of story 2 where everything is made-up numbers on pitch decks that nobody needs to check. the dumb money is scrambling to get into these bets before they become "the next big thing" (c.f. my most recent blog post) and they're all scared they'll be left behind.
and "VC" is a bit of an abstraction here too, it's not just them, it's the whole system. a lot of the investment is just coming straight from megacorps as direct investment, no VC firms in sight
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@glyph It's funny reading this and thinking of all the "quantum applications" startups that VCs threw money at before belatedly realizing the absurdity of selling applications for devices that haven't been built yet.
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@glyph It's funny reading this and thinking of all the "quantum applications" startups that VCs threw money at before belatedly realizing the absurdity of selling applications for devices that haven't been built yet.
@xgranade that is the main lesson that quantum mechanics teaches us, isn't it? "time is a flat circle"?
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@glyph It's funny reading this and thinking of all the "quantum applications" startups that VCs threw money at before belatedly realizing the absurdity of selling applications for devices that haven't been built yet.
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Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
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@liaizon@social.wake.st @julian@fietkau.social @rick@rmendes.net To be honest, I'm not really waiting for FEP standardization. It's more likely that the task of adding the GTS interaction policy vocabulary to Fedify will be included in the roadmap for the next version. (Or maybe the one after that.) Only after that prerequisite work is done can support for Mastodon-style quote posts be added to Fedify, I think.
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@afreytes the problem is when the earworm is Lord Trevor's The Big Bamboo and you end up listening to it on loudspeakers.
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@silverpill@mitra.social Ah, I see. In that case, it would be great if canonical permalinks could be decided for the FEP documents first!
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@fucinafibonacci @attualita in quelle carceri le istituzioni hanno mandato gli incursori eredi della X Mas per sedurre i minori alla guerra. Il messaggio è stato chiaro: sei niente, nemmeno esisti; ma se ti arruoli, avrai identità riconosciuta, un lavoro, e se sopravvivi forse pure la pensione.
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@FishFace I really think there's a material difference between moderating a server like a Mastodon instance and creating an entire subindustry of misery for your inhuman product—all while presenting the thing as some magical entity that ends tool.
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@shinmera What a sad thing to hear, both SBCL being slop'ified and also your experiences :(
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@hongminhee @rick ah so nice! thanks for the link. so does this mean we are sorta waiting on @julian to finish their fep first before you will start work on capabilities?
