The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*.
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RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853
The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.
That may be the outcome, but I'm 100% sure the decision is not made on those grounds.
The decision is made: "we legitimately believe we'll need X amount of compute in 2027 for our business and research. Let's prepurchase what we need so we don't fall behind."
A corporation that believes it's under future existential threat, is prepared to pay a lot more for existing capacity than a consumer who wants a new iPhone.
This is how pricing works, not a deliberate plan.
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@blogdiva I rely on these machines for earning my living. Still, with prices soaring I'm going into "make do and mend" mode for the foreseeable future. And turning old kit over to Linux or BSD …
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@cstross @furicle Back to at least to the 1970s!
The core point I'm after is that collusion across entire industries to prevent unwanted behavior (that is, not giving them maximal money) has a deep history of being found completely legal and proper and more or less working.
A combination of pricing people out of the market and pressure to make every device a managed device has been going on about personal computing hardware for at least ten years. Turning that up to 11 isn't implausible.
@graydon @cstross @furicle There's a reason I'm not too upset about a supply chain collapse. (Although I'm watching food distribution closely.)
A raspberry pi is an outright miracle of computing... by 1990s standards. It can be a media center, server, gaming, the works. The sane open source people make the same hardware do more over time.
Alas Linux stopped being sane ~10 years ago, because https://www.zdnet.com/article/graying-linux-developers-look-for-new-blood/ eventually became the "here's a nickel kid" dilbert strip unix greybeards.
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RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853
The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.
@cstross also they’re making your PC run like an old arthritic dog by dumping more and more code on it so you use your phone instead, which is a low-cognition consumption device that encourages you to scroll past more ads and buy crap you don’t need. Not sure how MS thinks it can make money encouraging everyone to use their Apple or android phone instead of their PC, but 🤷♂️
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@cstross I am willing to entertain the "we're going to get rid of consumer computer hardware that isn't rented" scenario.
In the 1970s, there was a thriving market for making, selling, and applying custom/aftermarket car parts. The entire auto industry systematically murdered it by successively moving cars into a space where you couldn't do that. It's not like we don't know a large market can't be expunged.
The incumbents have a strong general incentive to keep people from having options.
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RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853
The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.
@cstross I cannot agree enough, we gotta RAID SOME DATA CENTERS
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@cstross also they’re making your PC run like an old arthritic dog by dumping more and more code on it so you use your phone instead, which is a low-cognition consumption device that encourages you to scroll past more ads and buy crap you don’t need. Not sure how MS thinks it can make money encouraging everyone to use their Apple or android phone instead of their PC, but 🤷♂️
Anything shows me ads on MY phone it burns in a fire. Apps gone, etc.
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@mbpaz @cstross There is so much untapped wealth in all the old tech collecting dust all over the world. Commercial software steals this wealth from us by dropping support but free software unlocks it all back.
I'm writing this on a laptop from 2010 that I've been using as my only personal computer for about two years. It's running linux and can stream video in 720p when the website isn't too bloated, 480p otherwise, and I can use it to work on my godot game.
Yup, I'm posting this with a 2010 Core 2 Duo running Linux. I use it for internet, video editing, making music with Reaper, etc. I'll never stop using C2D computers for most duties.
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@negative12dollarbill @cstross @blogdiva only partially. A decade or two back you could write off the full cost of computing hardware against tax but it was so widely and comprehensively abused that the Inland Revenue put a stop to it.
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@c_merriweather @pare @cstross @blogdiva I’m running an 8 year old thing with 8gb ram and it’s perfect. Snappy and fast for my needs running Linux Mint. Runs better than it did brand new with Windows. I’ve sworn off buying new hardware entirely. Refurbs or hand me downs all the way. I
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Yup, I'm posting this with a 2010 Core 2 Duo running Linux. I use it for internet, video editing, making music with Reaper, etc. I'll never stop using C2D computers for most duties.
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RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853
The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.
I am reasonably sure the math does not work for this to be a deliberate attempt to get the world hooked on remote services.
If that is your goal, it would be cheaper to make it near-free for 5-10 years, driving OEM out of business. Instead, this juices production, R&D.
I do not know what *is* driving it, though. Perhaps quantum arms races? Internet redundancy/duplication? Remember PRISM? caused the same sort of bubble.
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@cstross i've been using the same computer with the youngest part being 10 years old, and the oldest 15 for 12 years they didn't need to end moore's law for that or whatever other conspiracy stuff
@Gnuxie Businesses figure on replacing the PCs on their staff desktops every 2 years. Long habit from the 80s/90s and an expectation that company kit will be hammered hard.
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@Gnuxie Businesses figure on replacing the PCs on their staff desktops every 2 years. Long habit from the 80s/90s and an expectation that company kit will be hammered hard.
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@negative12dollarbill @blogdiva Yes, but first I have to *earn* the money. (I'm still in a rough patch financially following a year of downtime due to COVID then finishing a series of novels that had dwindling sales before spinning up a new series, because: COVID and age-related decline in energy.)
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@dresstokilt @cstross "Every accusation is a confession" is not limited to skeevy remarks and musings about genocide. Pretty much everything ever said about the perils of communism also counts.
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@dresstokilt @cstross "Every accusation is a confession" is not limited to skeevy remarks and musings about genocide. Pretty much everything ever said about the perils of communism also counts.
@graydon @dresstokilt Yep: it is glaringly obvious today that "the menace of the communist international conspiracy!!!" was 100% right-wing projection (of what they wished they could get away with, or what—once the Heritage Foundation got going—of what they were actively trying to achieve).
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@dresstokilt please learn the difference between personal property and private property before fearmongering about who is coming to take what from whom, it is the capitalists who are coming after personal property and the only people who fear the abolition of private property are themselves actual or aspiring despots @graydon @cstross
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I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?
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