#bitcoin

[freundtech@chaos.social]

@molly0xfff There's an interesting article what likely drives the "Jesus prediction market" dynamics: https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/

tl;dr: No betters can earn a relatively safe ~3% interest off of the Yes betters. Yes betters are betting that No betters want to get their money out before the end of the year (possibly to bet on more lucrative bets) and are willing to pay a premium for it.

[davidtheeviloverlord@mastodon.social]

@molly0xfff

And the odds that Returned Jesus would be racially profiled, thrown to the ground by six masked thugs, held down, pepper sprayed, bashed in the head with a steel baton, shot sixteen times in the back, and then called a fucking bitch?

[voxel@infosec.space]

@molly0xfff Source?

[bzdev@fosstodon.org]

@molly0xfff To put a doubling of the odds in perspective, one might note that multiplying 0 by 2 still gives you 0.

A friend once sent me a fake blackmail letter as a joke, so I sent a reply saying he could have all my Porsches and Mercedes if he would just please, please burn all the negatives. I mentioned it to some friends who knew both of us and some guy standing there said, "how many Porsches and Mercedes did you have?" I said "as many negatives as he had." Everyone else laughed.

[pronounshe@lgbtqia.space]

@molly0xfff 🤦‍♀️

[2rad0@defcon.social]

@molly0xfff

Hah what fools, don't they know Jesus is still busy recovering from the time he performed the quadruple front flip miracle at the 1975 x-games? https://old.reddit.com/r/aivideos/comments/1qxnfhb/jesus_christ_superstar_oc/

[amal_@mastodon.social]

@bzdev @molly0xfff
🤭🤭🤭

[chrisp@cyberplace.social]

@davidtheeviloverlord @molly0xfff Mary and Joseph would then be investigated for terrorism.

[chrisp@cyberplace.social]

@molly0xfff They pay out $1 for every 75c for "Will Jesus return before the end of 2027?" "No" https://polymarket.com/event/jesus-christ-return-before-2027-odds-5-monday-night-12-1-am
Why are they taking the "No" bet at all? Am I missing something? Or why is it not 99c and you get $1 back? Or do the fees and locking in your money for 2 years with no interest offset it? Or are the people paying for yes subsidising the no people somewhat?

[chrisp@cyberplace.social]

@2rad0 @molly0xfff He's overhyped, the only trick he can do is a Christ air.

[dozymoe@mastodon.social]

@molly0xfff hedge that

[m1rk0@social.defcon42.net]

@molly0xfff Idiocracy.

[everythingispublichealth@mastodon.social]

@molly0xfff ????

[darryl_ramm@hachyderm.io]

@molly0xfff

Jesus thinking... "maybe I'll return just to fuck with crypto bros".