Friends,

[pitrh@mastodon.social]

Friends,

It feels like it was in a different century, but at the beginning of the #russia-#ukraine full scale war I speculated that you could predict development in conflict based on the intensity of attempted #cyberattacks, see https://nxdomain.no/~peter/Predicting_developments_in_real_world_conflict_from_patterns_of_failed_logins.html. The data now covers four years.

I ponder whether it's worth using the data (linked in the article) to see how these things correlate.

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

#ssh #passwordguessing #cybercrime #passwordgropers #hailmarycloud

[jan@mastodon.bsd.cafe]

@pitrh Things do correlate but it's rather complex. SSH attempts are an indicator but not a good one to link directly to a conflict. Blocking known attempts makes it hard to measure development and origin of the attacks in the future. Real world conflicts have many many effects in the cyberspace nowadays. It's hard to get the relevant data, it's hard to measure the impact, it's hard to correlate the different data and take action. Welcome to the world of hybrid threats.