US farmers are saying they "just need temporary help, until things get better."Here's the thing.
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Ok farm facts are back!
China is so much of the global soybean market, you can't make up losing them by selling to other countries. There isn't enough soybean demand in the world to fill that dent.
And farmers... know that.
And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.
The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.
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And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.
The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.
A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.
Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/
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A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.
Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/
Anyway, here's what this all means.
US soybean farmers have two options.
Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.
There is no third option.
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Anyway, here's what this all means.
US soybean farmers have two options.
Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.
There is no third option.
So which option are US farmers leaning toward?
Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.
They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.
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So which option are US farmers leaning toward?
Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.
They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.
(Sorry guys, these Farm Facts are gonna be a little different than the usual fun little factoids. Because our farm sector is doing its best to light itself on fire right now.)
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(Sorry guys, these Farm Facts are gonna be a little different than the usual fun little factoids. Because our farm sector is doing its best to light itself on fire right now.)
When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."
I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.
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When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."
I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.
I saw this coming!
That's not because I'm a genius with a crystal ball either! Everyone who was paying attention saw it coming.
Like China. They spent the last four years investing in soy farming in Brazil, Argentina, etc.
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I saw this coming!
That's not because I'm a genius with a crystal ball either! Everyone who was paying attention saw it coming.
Like China. They spent the last four years investing in soy farming in Brazil, Argentina, etc.
Because of this, and Trump's popularity, I knew there were very good odds the farmers in our state would lose their markets.
(NC doesn't export much soy. But we do export lots of pork, chicken, & tobacco to China.)
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Because of this, and Trump's popularity, I knew there were very good odds the farmers in our state would lose their markets.
(NC doesn't export much soy. But we do export lots of pork, chicken, & tobacco to China.)
We had to be ready to pivot away from bulk exports to China.
To do that, it takes leadership that knows how.
That means both the technical know-how on investing in new crops, AND the will to do so. Leadership that isn't in the pocket of the meat & tobacco companies.
That's what I ran on.
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We had to be ready to pivot away from bulk exports to China.
To do that, it takes leadership that knows how.
That means both the technical know-how on investing in new crops, AND the will to do so. Leadership that isn't in the pocket of the meat & tobacco companies.
That's what I ran on.
That's why I'm in a unique position to tell you how US farmers warm up to the idea of "It's time to grow something else."
They don't.
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That's why I'm in a unique position to tell you how US farmers warm up to the idea of "It's time to grow something else."
They don't.
To review: there are only two paths forward for a lot of US farmers.
The "grow something else" option is anathema to a lot of them, that means a whole lot of US farmers are banking on the other path.
Get bailouts forever.
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To review: there are only two paths forward for a lot of US farmers.
The "grow something else" option is anathema to a lot of them, that means a whole lot of US farmers are banking on the other path.
Get bailouts forever.
I'm sure they're not putting it in those words to themselves. But... that is the only other option.
So now we need to talk about how the US is emerging into a dictatorship right now, and how agriculture has thrown in its lot with that happening.
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I'm sure they're not putting it in those words to themselves. But... that is the only other option.
So now we need to talk about how the US is emerging into a dictatorship right now, and how agriculture has thrown in its lot with that happening.
When Trump bailed out farmers in his first term, that was executive branch orders. Congress had nothing to do with it.
So already setting up a pattern of "Who cares about checks & balances? Or how Congress is supposed to be in charge of the US's budget? I'm gonna rule unilaterally. Like a king. And you support me, so I like you, and here's your money."
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When Trump bailed out farmers in his first term, that was executive branch orders. Congress had nothing to do with it.
So already setting up a pattern of "Who cares about checks & balances? Or how Congress is supposed to be in charge of the US's budget? I'm gonna rule unilaterally. Like a king. And you support me, so I like you, and here's your money."
And that's what I'm seeing this time around as well.
Congress can stop the trade war, AND budget bailouts.
But the farm sector isn't even bothering to ask Congress for anything.
It's all pleas, for money, directed towards Trump himself.
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And that's what I'm seeing this time around as well.
Congress can stop the trade war, AND budget bailouts.
But the farm sector isn't even bothering to ask Congress for anything.
It's all pleas, for money, directed towards Trump himself.
And the farm sector won't criticize Trump or his actions. It's not "Hey Trump your policies stink." It's "We love you but this'll be hard for us…Money please!"
That's the dictatorship playbook.
Kiss the dear leader's ring. Support him. Expect kickbacks.
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And the farm sector won't criticize Trump or his actions. It's not "Hey Trump your policies stink." It's "We love you but this'll be hard for us…Money please!"
That's the dictatorship playbook.
Kiss the dear leader's ring. Support him. Expect kickbacks.
And most of all, ignore Congress. Do not even acknowledge that there are supposed to be checks & balances protecting you. That would ruin the illusion of an all-powerful strongman on top- that you desperately want to be real.
Because no sane country, where leaders are accountable to voters, would ever decide to bail out people who openly & freely voted to destroy their own business.
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And most of all, ignore Congress. Do not even acknowledge that there are supposed to be checks & balances protecting you. That would ruin the illusion of an all-powerful strongman on top- that you desperately want to be real.
Because no sane country, where leaders are accountable to voters, would ever decide to bail out people who openly & freely voted to destroy their own business.
The farm sector chose to help bring Trump to power. They chose to engage with him as you would an all-powerful dictator.
Because they saw that making him one is a good way to get easy money.
I know we have a folklore of farms being, like, the traditional beating heart of democracy. A nd that's such a nice idea!
But this is what's really happening.
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The farm sector chose to help bring Trump to power. They chose to engage with him as you would an all-powerful dictator.
Because they saw that making him one is a good way to get easy money.
I know we have a folklore of farms being, like, the traditional beating heart of democracy. A nd that's such a nice idea!
But this is what's really happening.
We need to see how much work the farm sector's doing to undermine our republic. We need to name this for what it is.
I want farmers to think very carefully about if this is the kind of country we want to leave for our kids.
And if it's not, we need to wake up and do the work it takes to live in a free country.
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We need to see how much work the farm sector's doing to undermine our republic. We need to name this for what it is.
I want farmers to think very carefully about if this is the kind of country we want to leave for our kids.
And if it's not, we need to wake up and do the work it takes to live in a free country.
"Freedom isn't free" isn't just for soldiers.
It's for all of us.
And sometimes it just means "If you're lucky enough to be entrusted with land, do a good job with it.
"Don't just shoot yourself in the foot & grovel for refunds."
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"Freedom isn't free" isn't just for soldiers.
It's for all of us.
And sometimes it just means "If you're lucky enough to be entrusted with land, do a good job with it.
"Don't just shoot yourself in the foot & grovel for refunds."
Well that's enough from me for now.
Tonight's farm fact: sometimes entire sectors of the economy jump into bed with dictators, and agriculture is no exception.
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