This Yglesias piece in the NYT is horrifically bad.
Uncategorized
50
Posts
1
Posters
0
Views
-
11. That's a good thing! We're just as warm, just as able to travel as we were 20 years ago, and rising vehicle efficiency, EV deployment, etc. is giving consumers more useful energy with less oil expense. That's good for consumers, even if it hurts producers.
12. And if we want to talk about the politics, here's some easy math: there are a lot more voters who consume energy than there are who produce energy. If you're confused on that point, you might be a crappy pundit...
-
12. And if we want to talk about the politics, here's some easy math: there are a lot more voters who consume energy than there are who produce energy. If you're confused on that point, you might be a crappy pundit...
13. And this isn't just true of oil. We've also moved from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas since 2012. (Also because fracking.) Which again means that to take Yglesias' advice in 2025 is to prioritize energy producers over energy consumers.
-
13. And this isn't just true of oil. We've also moved from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas since 2012. (Also because fracking.) Which again means that to take Yglesias' advice in 2025 is to prioritize energy producers over energy consumers.
14. The wealth transfer from natural gas is perhaps even more direct since gas - unlike oil - isn't quite a global commodity; the costs to liquefy and transport gas, per MMBtu are a lot higher than oil, which creates much higher local price disparities.
-
14. The wealth transfer from natural gas is perhaps even more direct since gas - unlike oil - isn't quite a global commodity; the costs to liquefy and transport gas, per MMBtu are a lot higher than oil, which creates much higher local price disparities.
15. As such, when US producers can swap European/Asian markets for the US markets and make a higher margin, even after accounting for shipping costs it puts significant upward pressure on previously land-locked domestic prices.
-
15. As such, when US producers can swap European/Asian markets for the US markets and make a higher margin, even after accounting for shipping costs it puts significant upward pressure on previously land-locked domestic prices.
16. This is the reverse of getting off middle eastern oil in 2012. Now, instead of decoupling from global volatility we are absorbing it. That gets quantified whenever a major US LNG export facility has an outage & domestic NG prices fall. Who ya rootin' for, Matt? https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53079#:~:text=A%20fire%20at%20Freeport%20LNG's,U.S.%20natural%20gas%20demand%20outlook.
-
16. This is the reverse of getting off middle eastern oil in 2012. Now, instead of decoupling from global volatility we are absorbing it. That gets quantified whenever a major US LNG export facility has an outage & domestic NG prices fall. Who ya rootin' for, Matt? https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53079#:~:text=A%20fire%20at%20Freeport%20LNG's,U.S.%20natural%20gas%20demand%20outlook.
17. It's worth reading the entirety of what DOE had to say about the impact of that 2022 outage on domestic prices. These are massive price swings - and therefore massive wealth transfers from US consumers to US producers!
-
17. It's worth reading the entirety of what DOE had to say about the impact of that 2022 outage on domestic prices. These are massive price swings - and therefore massive wealth transfers from US consumers to US producers!
18. Because natural gas is used for so much of US power generation, increasing gas exports = higher gas prices = higher electricity. One climate negative impact of that is that after years of decline, we now are seeing an uptick in domestic power generation from coal.
-
18. Because natural gas is used for so much of US power generation, increasing gas exports = higher gas prices = higher electricity. One climate negative impact of that is that after years of decline, we now are seeing an uptick in domestic power generation from coal.
19. This isn't because coal is cheap, or because we're building more coal plants. It's because when the price of gas goes up gas fired power plants are a little less competitive against other asset classes and the competition (in this case, coal) picked up the slack.
-
19. This isn't because coal is cheap, or because we're building more coal plants. It's because when the price of gas goes up gas fired power plants are a little less competitive against other asset classes and the competition (in this case, coal) picked up the slack.
20. So this goes back to point 10. When we are a net exporter, decisions to produce more help producers and hurt consumers. And in this case, are ALSO bad for the climate. It's lose / lose all around.
-
20. So this goes back to point 10. When we are a net exporter, decisions to produce more help producers and hurt consumers. And in this case, are ALSO bad for the climate. It's lose / lose all around.
21. And before team Yglesias responds by saying "yeah, but it's bad politics to run on climate and energy"... I'd point out that I've won 4 elections in a very purple district running on climate and energy. Pro-tip: leadership is possible! You don't have to be stupid to win!
-
21. And before team Yglesias responds by saying "yeah, but it's bad politics to run on climate and energy"... I'd point out that I've won 4 elections in a very purple district running on climate and energy. Pro-tip: leadership is possible! You don't have to be stupid to win!
22. Speaking of climate. Let's now pick apart this word salad of stupidity. Specifically the assertion that US oil is "cleaner" than other countries and therefore it is environmentally virtuous for us to drill baby drill.
-
22. Speaking of climate. Let's now pick apart this word salad of stupidity. Specifically the assertion that US oil is "cleaner" than other countries and therefore it is environmentally virtuous for us to drill baby drill.
23. Here's the report he links to in order to prove his point, that compares the carbon intensity of various global oil production regions. https://www.energyindepth.org/report-u-s-beats-competitors-with-low-carbon-intensity-oil/
-
23. Here's the report he links to in order to prove his point, that compares the carbon intensity of various global oil production regions. https://www.energyindepth.org/report-u-s-beats-competitors-with-low-carbon-intensity-oil/
24. Here's the chart. I don't know if he looked at it, and I certainly don't think he thought about it but I'd encourage you to as it refutes much of that word salad paragraph.
-
24. Here's the chart. I don't know if he looked at it, and I certainly don't think he thought about it but I'd encourage you to as it refutes much of that word salad paragraph.
25. First, note who is the cleanest: Saudi Arabia. So when he says that we should "work with other low-intensity producers", he is essentially saying that we should maximize production in Saudi before bringing on US production. How does that help win elections in TX and OH?
-
25. First, note who is the cleanest: Saudi Arabia. So when he says that we should "work with other low-intensity producers", he is essentially saying that we should maximize production in Saudi before bringing on US production. How does that help win elections in TX and OH?
26. Interestingly, since the Saudis gave Kushner his PE fund and Trump his LIV tournament he's been quiet as they've kept the oil price under $70 which in turn has suppressed US rig counts. So maybe Trump is taking Yglesias' advice? How's that polling? https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-rigs
-
26. Interestingly, since the Saudis gave Kushner his PE fund and Trump his LIV tournament he's been quiet as they've kept the oil price under $70 which in turn has suppressed US rig counts. So maybe Trump is taking Yglesias' advice? How's that polling? https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-rigs
27. Back to the chart. Look at how much dirtier Canadian oil is than US oil. (Because tar sands are very energy intensive to extract). You know who pushed to stop imports of dirty Canadian oil into the US? Obama! Google "keystone XL pipeline" if you've forgotten that history.
-
27. Back to the chart. Look at how much dirtier Canadian oil is than US oil. (Because tar sands are very energy intensive to extract). You know who pushed to stop imports of dirty Canadian oil into the US? Obama! Google "keystone XL pipeline" if you've forgotten that history.
28. Recall that the oil industry (and the GOP) demonized Obama for blocking Keystone not because they were looking out for US producers but because they had spare refining capacity and wanted to make money exporting the resulting finished products. So again, this is about producers v consumers.
-
28. Recall that the oil industry (and the GOP) demonized Obama for blocking Keystone not because they were looking out for US producers but because they had spare refining capacity and wanted to make money exporting the resulting finished products. So again, this is about producers v consumers.
29. Now look at the US bars on that chart. Yes, bars plural. Because US production is not monolithic. Conventional oil production (offshore gulf, southwest) uses relatively little energy to lift the oil to the surface and as a result is much cleaner than "other US" (aka fracking).
-
29. Now look at the US bars on that chart. Yes, bars plural. Because US production is not monolithic. Conventional oil production (offshore gulf, southwest) uses relatively little energy to lift the oil to the surface and as a result is much cleaner than "other US" (aka fracking).
30. Which means that if you're making the argument that US oil production is cleaner, you have to be honest about where the marginal production is happening. And in OH, PA and those other swing states he describes, it ain't from conventional drilling.
-
30. Which means that if you're making the argument that US oil production is cleaner, you have to be honest about where the marginal production is happening. And in OH, PA and those other swing states he describes, it ain't from conventional drilling.
31. On natural gas, his arguments are just as bad. Yes, it is true that at the burner tip a unit of natural gas emits less CO2 than a unit of coal. And if you have a coal mine and a gas well in your back yard, both of which are hooked up to your furnace that is a relevant comparison.
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
-
ChonginTommy (@chongintommy.bsky.social)
https://bsky.app/profile/chongintommy.bsky.social/post/3mc3qvea7ma2f
-
@arosano not yet 🙂
-
@youranoncentral.bsky.social uguale
-
@stefano ah,
For a melancholy moment, I was reminded of Wuala. In the good old days, before LaCie got its hand on it.
-
This post did not contain any content.
-
@valhalla @yaw cambiare istanza aiuta se @GustavinoBevilacqua è bloccato 8-D
-
@yaw un modo per trovarsi la timeline piena è seguire @GustavinoBevilacqua (se la sua istanza non è bloccata dalla vostra o simili): boosta un sacco di cose interessanti da tutto il fediverso mondiale (non solo in italiano, e neanche solo in italiano e inglese)
altrimenti può essere utile provare a fare delle ricerche per tag di argomenti di proprio interesse¹, trovare persone che sembrano postare cose interessanti, e iniziare a seguirle. e poi seguire le persone che queste persone boostano, ecc. ecc.
¹ non necessariamente sulla propria istanza: io che sono su un'istanza microscopica spesso vado a farli su istanze più o meno tematiche a tema adiacente: non necessariamente trovo persone che arrivano dall'istanza dove ho cercato, ma se l'istanza è tematica è più facile che riceva i post in questione anche da altrove. dopodiché copio il link nella casella di ricerca della mia istanza per avere i post con cui interagire.
