Here's a scenario to consider:

[angusm@mastodon.social]

Here's a scenario to consider:

1. Xi Jinping decides the time is right to invade Taiwan.
2. With many US forces concentrated in the Middle East, & cruise missiles & smart bombs in reduced supply, the US can’t respond effectively.
3. The invasion of Taiwan, successful or not, cuts off US access to advanced chips (90% made in Taiwan)
4. US tech stocks are wiped out, the US economy goes into freefall.
5. US becomes Russia 2.0: a failed state with a mad dictator, nukes & an economy in shreds.

[wifiwits@infosec.exchange]

@angusm well that’s cheered me up no end… /s

[ratsnakegames@mastodon.social]

@Netraven First, stop complaining about mastodon.social. Nobody will take you seriously if you do.

[budududuroiu@hachyderm.io]

@angusm that's a really shoddy analysis.

Invading Taiwan would require massive blood drives, preparation of staging areas, etc. in China.

China's A2D is already good enough that whether the USN is deployed somewhere else is kinda irrelevant.

Time is on China's side, they really don't have to rush this.