Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
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Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
@cstross Musk's whole hustle is to make increasingly grandiose claims to inflate his stocks. None of his big ideas ever materialize though. If Musk were credible, we'd have a colony on Mars by now (among much else that is simply never going to happen). It's so frustrating that the media continue to neutrally report his bombastic nonsense as if he wasn't just the world's most successful confidence trickster.
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@cstross Musk's whole hustle is to make increasingly grandiose claims to inflate his stocks. None of his big ideas ever materialize though. If Musk were credible, we'd have a colony on Mars by now (among much else that is simply never going to happen). It's so frustrating that the media continue to neutrally report his bombastic nonsense as if he wasn't just the world's most successful confidence trickster.
@ApostateEnglishman "None of the big ideas ever materialize" except the launcher with the payload of the space shuttle at $12M/flight that is *more reusable* than the shuttle ( 8 day turnaround between flights! 50 reuses per booster and climbing!) or disrupting the car industry by making EVs sexy. Or the low orbit comsat cluster.
Most of his bullshit evaporates on close inspection or goes wrong—but enough of it works to keep everything afloat.
(Shun anything he says about software, though.)
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Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
@cstross Yup. Nail on head. It's all meme hype now.
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@ApostateEnglishman "None of the big ideas ever materialize" except the launcher with the payload of the space shuttle at $12M/flight that is *more reusable* than the shuttle ( 8 day turnaround between flights! 50 reuses per booster and climbing!) or disrupting the car industry by making EVs sexy. Or the low orbit comsat cluster.
Most of his bullshit evaporates on close inspection or goes wrong—but enough of it works to keep everything afloat.
(Shun anything he says about software, though.)
@cstross @ApostateEnglishman sort of like how Tesla is down 46% in sales this year and no longer the #1 electric car but that's alright, were going to male robots instead. -
Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
@cstross Yes. But selling this *idea* is still likely to be very bad for any rational and responsible use of our orbital space. 😭
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@cstross @ApostateEnglishman sort of like how Tesla is down 46% in sales this year and no longer the #1 electric car but that's alright, were going to male robots instead.
@Nimbius666 @ApostateEnglishman Musk is trying to ride the AI bubble. Seems he hasn't realized he's riding it like Slim Pickens:
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Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
@cstross the "invisible hand of the market"
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@ApostateEnglishman "None of the big ideas ever materialize" except the launcher with the payload of the space shuttle at $12M/flight that is *more reusable* than the shuttle ( 8 day turnaround between flights! 50 reuses per booster and climbing!) or disrupting the car industry by making EVs sexy. Or the low orbit comsat cluster.
Most of his bullshit evaporates on close inspection or goes wrong—but enough of it works to keep everything afloat.
(Shun anything he says about software, though.)
@cstross I mean, yeah. I stand partially corrected. Enough of it works to keep the hustle alive. On the other hand, how many failed launches has SpaceX had? How many potentially fatal design flaws do Teslas have? The list goes on and on.
Next we'll have humanoid robots that occasionally decide to go on killing sprees, or explode. Or are so easy to hack remotely that owning one is essentially inviting every cybercriminal and spy agency into your home to follow you around and take notes. 🤷🏻♂️
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@cstross Yes. But selling this *idea* is still likely to be very bad for any rational and responsible use of our orbital space. 😭
@FaithfullJohn Well yes, but we need to criticize it because it's bullshit: "rational and responsible use" have nothing to do with the stock market.
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@cstross I'd be interested in finding out if Scott Manley got anything wrong here.
His take, as I understand it, is basically (1) the physics makes it complicated but not non-doable, and (2) can't be profitable now but may well be so within the foreseeable future -- making it likely that whoever gets there first, even before it's profitable, stands to make the usual absurd amounts of money (especially if orbital access is never properly regulated) once it does become cheap enough for it to be profitable.
@woozle Libertarian orbital CSAM storage and generation is not a great argument in a bad idea’s favor.
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@raymaccarthy @oldgeek @lucien The point of starlink is low latency, which means low orbit. Which in turn requires lots of them to ensure there are no gaps in coverage. (And now they're working on satellite-to-satellite high bandwidth laser mesh networking to increase capacity.)
I think you underestimate the scale of aviation and shipping, not to mention railway transport.
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@jb I don't approve of capitalism occupying Earth orbit; my point was that (at least according to Manley, and what I do understand of physics and orbital mechanics) it's not implausible that what the Muskrat is doing here is actually sensible from a capitalist standpoint.
His whole existence is a grift, and he needs to be stopped, but this particular part of it seems far less of a con than (e.g.) the "cybertruck".
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@cstross I mean, yeah. I stand partially corrected. Enough of it works to keep the hustle alive. On the other hand, how many failed launches has SpaceX had? How many potentially fatal design flaws do Teslas have? The list goes on and on.
Next we'll have humanoid robots that occasionally decide to go on killing sprees, or explode. Or are so easy to hack remotely that owning one is essentially inviting every cybercriminal and spy agency into your home to follow you around and take notes. 🤷🏻♂️
@ApostateEnglishman You ask about failed SpaceX launches: turns out Falcon 9 has launched 606 times with 603 mission successes. 3 launch failures total, none in the past 11 years. It's *ridiculously* reliable compared to any of its rivals.
(Falcon 1—discontinued—was a buggy prototype; Starship is trying to get past that.)
(Tesla is not going to give us humanoid robots, not beyond showroom rigged demos targeting the investors' wallets. And I'm NOT having one of those brain implants, no way!)
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Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
there is nothing more guaranteed for pygmy ponies on springs to be sold as anti-gravity unicorns with lasers than an IPO road show for tech....
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@jb I don't approve of capitalism occupying Earth orbit; my point was that (at least according to Manley, and what I do understand of physics and orbital mechanics) it's not implausible that what the Muskrat is doing here is actually sensible from a capitalist standpoint.
His whole existence is a grift, and he needs to be stopped, but this particular part of it seems far less of a con than (e.g.) the "cybertruck".
@woozle @jb Tough luck: all we've got in orbit today is capitalism, plus a couple of government-funded puppet shows showcasing "space science" while paying huge back-handers to corporations.
This is the reason we can't have nice things. (I prefer the term "crapitalism" to "enshittification", but you get the picture either way.)
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@ApostateEnglishman "None of the big ideas ever materialize" except the launcher with the payload of the space shuttle at $12M/flight that is *more reusable* than the shuttle ( 8 day turnaround between flights! 50 reuses per booster and climbing!) or disrupting the car industry by making EVs sexy. Or the low orbit comsat cluster.
Most of his bullshit evaporates on close inspection or goes wrong—but enough of it works to keep everything afloat.
(Shun anything he says about software, though.)
@cstross @ApostateEnglishman@mastodon.world
The innovation wasn't the cars.
It was implementing a transport _system_
Now once there is a system of a supply network for recharging, and vehicles to recharge, other people will do it, and eventually as commodities and better.The thing with Spacex wasn't launches and missions, it was a transport _system_.
Now, what is the complete system being floated?
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Because a LOT of people are missing the point:
No, Elon Musk is NOT serious about putting a million data centres into orbit. It can't work: laws of physics say "nope".
But SpaceX is expected to go public this year.
Elon is talking up his company's future prospects in front of gullible investors because he needs a growth narrative beyond Starlink, which is already priced in. Something to justify the Starship proram beyond NASA's lunar ambitions.
So it's salesman's bullshit, lies for fools.
@cstross that is what he does. He promises things, puts people he employs in a positon of trying to make it work, doesn't deliver, and the cycle starts again.
And some people chose to believe that *this time* it will be true.
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@FaithfullJohn Well yes, but we need to criticize it because it's bullshit: "rational and responsible use" have nothing to do with the stock market.
@cstross Indeed ☹️ 🤬
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@woozle @jb Tough luck: all we've got in orbit today is capitalism, plus a couple of government-funded puppet shows showcasing "space science" while paying huge back-handers to corporations.
This is the reason we can't have nice things. (I prefer the term "crapitalism" to "enshittification", but you get the picture either way.)
@cstross Indeed, I know -- it's where we are now.
Perhaps not too late to stop it from metastasizing, but it's going to be a hard battle.
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What strikes me most about this acquisition isn't the AI angle. It's the question of why so many open source tools get built by startup teams in the first place.
I maintain an open source project funded by the Sovereign Tech Fund. Getting there wasn't easy: the application process is long, the amounts are modest compared to a VC round, and you have to build community trust before any of that becomes possible. But the result is a project that isn't on anyone's exit timeline.
I'm not saying the startup path is without its own difficulties. But structurally, it offloads the costs onto the community that eventually comes to depend on you. By the time those costs come due, the founders have either cashed out or the company is circling the drain, and the users are left holding the bag. What's happening to Astral fits that pattern almost too neatly.
The healthier model, I think, is to build community first and then seek public or nonprofit funding: NLnet, STF, or similar. It's slower and harder, but it doesn't have a built-in betrayal baked into the structure.
Part of what makes this difficult is that public funding for open source infrastructure is still very uneven geographically. I'm based in Korea, and there's essentially nothing here comparable to what European developers can access. I had no choice but to turn to European funds, because there was simply no domestic equivalent. That's a structural problem worth taking seriously. The more countries that leave this entirely to the private sector, the more we end up watching exactly this kind of thing play out.
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every time i see payphones for sale it makes me ache because i have no need for them right now, and someday i will have a need for one, and by that time it will be way too late to easily find one, but i can't exactly shill out $100 for more project junk i don't need...
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people are selling all kinds of things
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@lindenshieldarts Oooh my gosh, I need to browse through your shop, your art is definitely something I want on my walls!
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Ammousa Beach, Lefkada (Grecia)
Video della giornata: https://youtu.be/20rveT0jIAM
Qui non servono descrizioni: una delle spiagge su cui persino io, sardo, non posso dire nulla.
Fantastica.
#beach #photography #foto #fotografia #grecia #lefkada #mare #natura #spiaggia #isoleionie
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