@glyph Did you quote post something?
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@jmeowmeow @glyph Story 1 as written doesn't have enough growth in it. Venture investors will only invest in things that have the potential to grow rapidly and to a large size, otherwise their business model doesn't make sense. Most businesses aren't shaped like that so they need a different kind of funding. VC is only something like 5% of institutional equity investments so it's a small if extremely loud corner of the finance world.
@mirth @jmeowmeow I appreciate what you’re saying here and it’s directionally correct (although I am super curious where you get that 5% number?) but you fell for my rhetorical trap :). the upside on story 1 is unlimited. potentially infinite. it’s an unknown innovation with an unknown market
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@mirth @jmeowmeow I appreciate what you’re saying here and it’s directionally correct (although I am super curious where you get that 5% number?) but you fell for my rhetorical trap :). the upside on story 1 is unlimited. potentially infinite. it’s an unknown innovation with an unknown market
@glyph @jmeowmeow Most companies don't have a reasonable chance of unlimited upside, or its implied consequence infinite net present value. If you look at a coffee shop, or a copper mine, or a CRM for dentists, you can reason about the business and come up with an idea of its financial mechanics and how it could be funded. Having been around a lot of small software companies I don't think many of them really have the growth potential to justify large outside investments.
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@glyph @jmeowmeow Most companies don't have a reasonable chance of unlimited upside, or its implied consequence infinite net present value. If you look at a coffee shop, or a copper mine, or a CRM for dentists, you can reason about the business and come up with an idea of its financial mechanics and how it could be funded. Having been around a lot of small software companies I don't think many of them really have the growth potential to justify large outside investments.
@glyph @jmeowmeow There are other fund structures that do these kinds of investments in some circumstances, Andrew Wilkenson's Tiny being an example that comes to mind, but it's a bit different than what VCs can do.
As for the 5%, it's a rough guess based on different numbers I've heard of different slices of finance. It depends who you count as "institutional" etc, and every fund manager has their own idea about how to allocate.
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@glyph Really enjoyed this, and a surprisingly optimistic outlook!
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@glyph @jmeowmeow There are other fund structures that do these kinds of investments in some circumstances, Andrew Wilkenson's Tiny being an example that comes to mind, but it's a bit different than what VCs can do.
As for the 5%, it's a rough guess based on different numbers I've heard of different slices of finance. It depends who you count as "institutional" etc, and every fund manager has their own idea about how to allocate.
@glyph @jmeowmeow As you can probably infer I have done a good bit of abyss-staring.
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@glyph
I do think we will continue to have innovation. A large part of why it has accelerated the past couple of centuries is IMO that we have enough surplus to afford having lots and lots of people working on research and innovation instead of providing nutrition to themselves.But. I agree that future waves of innovation are not going to happen in computing. We're petering out. It might not be in the hard sciences at all. And it might not generate big economic profits.
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@astraluma I don't think any of it narrativizes quite that precisely and neatly, and it depends exactly where you were and what you were doing at the time, but, in general, I think, "yes"
@glyph @astraluma Twice, arguably - in the mid 19th century slowdown, and the late 19th/early 20th century slowdown. (The industrial revolution had a couple waves, where new technologies got picked up, dramatically changed some industry/industries, then growth slowed down once they had become widespread, with
things like steam engines, trains, and telegraphs, early on, mass steel production, electricity, and standardized parts & assembly lines in the later wave) -
@glyph @astraluma Twice, arguably - in the mid 19th century slowdown, and the late 19th/early 20th century slowdown. (The industrial revolution had a couple waves, where new technologies got picked up, dramatically changed some industry/industries, then growth slowed down once they had become widespread, with
things like steam engines, trains, and telegraphs, early on, mass steel production, electricity, and standardized parts & assembly lines in the later wave)@glyph @astraluma but then damn near an entire generation died in a war, and shortly after did it again, so it's a bit less clear in that period what was "We ran out of new big things" and what was "We ran out of able bodied men to use the new things." until you get into the more contemporary period...
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@glyph I take him at the persona he presents to us, Big Joel™.
Comedy answer: Mike
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@glyph …you’re gonna make a blog post version of this, yeah
*puppy eyes emoji*
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@glyph …you’re gonna make a blog post version of this, yeah
*puppy eyes emoji*
@genehack really trying to keep the blog to <50% whinging about AI, as I feel like this is a crowded field at the moment, but perhaps it'll consume one of those slots soon :)
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@genehack really trying to keep the blog to <50% whinging about AI, as I feel like this is a crowded field at the moment, but perhaps it'll consume one of those slots soon :)
@glyph I understand the ratio management, totes, but you may need to dial down the insights then.
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@glyph I understand the ratio management, totes, but you may need to dial down the insights then.
@glyph *ahem* dial down the insights (complimentary), that is.
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@glyph I take him at the persona he presents to us, Big Joel™.
Comedy answer: Mike
@2WaterGuns but sometimes big joel is also little joel, which is confusing
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@glyph *ahem* dial down the insights (complimentary), that is.
@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
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@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
@genehack if I wanted to do this and *not* stagnate I'd need to really up my research skills and I don't have the fortitude to do what David Gerard or Molly White do with significant amounts of actual research every day; that degree of abyss-gazing is too much psychic damage-over-time to withstand :)
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@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
@glyph ALWAYS prioritize your own well being. Period, full stop.
2nd, I have said that one part of leadership is repeating the same thing over and over again until you’re past sick of hearing it.
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@glyph ALWAYS prioritize your own well being. Period, full stop.
2nd, I have said that one part of leadership is repeating the same thing over and over again until you’re past sick of hearing it.
@glyph that’s not quite the same thing as “to an audience that actively needs to not hear it”, to be fair, but I think that’s a matter of degree, not kind.
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@glyph that’s not quite the same thing as “to an audience that actively needs to not hear it”, to be fair, but I think that’s a matter of degree, not kind.
@genehack hmmmmmm you make an interesting point here about repetition, one that I have brushed up on in various discussions of sprachspiel. a good antithesis to my thesis, will need to contemplate the synthesis!
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@genehack hmmmmmm you make an interesting point here about repetition, one that I have brushed up on in various discussions of sprachspiel. a good antithesis to my thesis, will need to contemplate the synthesis!
@glyph the other version of that I’ve used is, “if you think you’re saying the same thing too much, that’s probably about the right amount”.
(May have stolen that from somebody, maybe…)
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
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@stefano Close one. Glad you made! It had rear traction, right? A bugger to regain control if traction gets lost.
It's a bit like a certain subtle sound I'll never forget. A very large wood construction- and timber market center right before my window of my childrens bedroom completely went up into flames in the middle of the dead night when I was young.
Much later, when my wife and me were living together one night I woke up by that subtle sound again and knew right away something big lit up. It was the bikeshed of our neigbours. We were able to call the FD and alerted the neighbours, who were still asleep at that point, to get out.🤷♀️
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@robhardware excellent point Rob. I also feel that vanity metrics play a lot into it too... they are reluctant to leave behind a platform - and rebuild from scratch in a new place - if they had accumulated a lot of followers over the years.
IMHO it's all about optics and ego - even if X has armies of bots and engagement has plummeted for real users... when will they see the light?
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Ieri su Radio Popolare è andata in onda una chiacchierata con me.
Mi piace Radio Pop <3
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La logica dei cartoni
Il cerotto sul vestito
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@elena @404mediaco @Em0nM4stodon Absolutely agree. I imagine there are quite a few politicians who instinctively feel they should be off X being advised by their political parties comms teams that they are losing a huge advertising opportunity, especially during elections, if they leave, and that they would be at a disadvantage to their opponents. Until the stigma of using X outweighs the electoral cost, I'm just not sure how much change we'll see.
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@macfranc @lauramassera @eticadigitale beh, attenzione perché la Apple deve assolutamente garantire (quasi per contratto) ai suoi clienti la privacy e la protezione dei loro dati. Tanto da avvisare loro stessi diversi clienti che nemmeno si erano accorti di aver subito intrusioni e controlli attivi sui propri dispositivi offrendo persino assistenza legale. Difendono semplicemente il loro "feudo" dando protezione (finché conviene) ai loro protetti che continuano semplicemente a consumare gadget e giochini digitali. Della libertà e della privacy in sé non gliene importa nulla a nessuno, né a chi si lascia possedere né tantomeno alle grandi aziende come Apple.
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Lavoratore muore per il freddo nei cantieri delle olimpiadi a cortina. “lo specchio del lavoro tossico e nocivo dei grandi eventi”
@anarchia
È morto per il freddo all’età di 55 anni Pietro Zantonini, originario di Brindisi, durante un turno di vigilanza notturna nel cantiere delle olimpiadi Milano-Cortina.
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@lauramassera Hai assolutamente ragione, ma diciamo anche che nel 2025 è impossibile non riconoscere che la malvagità antisociale è il tratto distintivo di quelle Big Tech che spesso si presentavano eticamente candide.
L'unica eccezione è probabilmente quella di Apple che effettivamente ha deciso, sia anche solo per questioni di marketing e narrativa aziendale, di opporsi alle nuove tendenze del cattivismo trumpiano
