@glyph Did you quote post something?
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@mirth @jmeowmeow I appreciate what you’re saying here and it’s directionally correct (although I am super curious where you get that 5% number?) but you fell for my rhetorical trap :). the upside on story 1 is unlimited. potentially infinite. it’s an unknown innovation with an unknown market
@glyph @jmeowmeow Most companies don't have a reasonable chance of unlimited upside, or its implied consequence infinite net present value. If you look at a coffee shop, or a copper mine, or a CRM for dentists, you can reason about the business and come up with an idea of its financial mechanics and how it could be funded. Having been around a lot of small software companies I don't think many of them really have the growth potential to justify large outside investments.
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@glyph @jmeowmeow Most companies don't have a reasonable chance of unlimited upside, or its implied consequence infinite net present value. If you look at a coffee shop, or a copper mine, or a CRM for dentists, you can reason about the business and come up with an idea of its financial mechanics and how it could be funded. Having been around a lot of small software companies I don't think many of them really have the growth potential to justify large outside investments.
@glyph @jmeowmeow There are other fund structures that do these kinds of investments in some circumstances, Andrew Wilkenson's Tiny being an example that comes to mind, but it's a bit different than what VCs can do.
As for the 5%, it's a rough guess based on different numbers I've heard of different slices of finance. It depends who you count as "institutional" etc, and every fund manager has their own idea about how to allocate.
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@glyph Really enjoyed this, and a surprisingly optimistic outlook!
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@glyph @jmeowmeow There are other fund structures that do these kinds of investments in some circumstances, Andrew Wilkenson's Tiny being an example that comes to mind, but it's a bit different than what VCs can do.
As for the 5%, it's a rough guess based on different numbers I've heard of different slices of finance. It depends who you count as "institutional" etc, and every fund manager has their own idea about how to allocate.
@glyph @jmeowmeow As you can probably infer I have done a good bit of abyss-staring.
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@glyph
I do think we will continue to have innovation. A large part of why it has accelerated the past couple of centuries is IMO that we have enough surplus to afford having lots and lots of people working on research and innovation instead of providing nutrition to themselves.But. I agree that future waves of innovation are not going to happen in computing. We're petering out. It might not be in the hard sciences at all. And it might not generate big economic profits.
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@astraluma I don't think any of it narrativizes quite that precisely and neatly, and it depends exactly where you were and what you were doing at the time, but, in general, I think, "yes"
@glyph @astraluma Twice, arguably - in the mid 19th century slowdown, and the late 19th/early 20th century slowdown. (The industrial revolution had a couple waves, where new technologies got picked up, dramatically changed some industry/industries, then growth slowed down once they had become widespread, with
things like steam engines, trains, and telegraphs, early on, mass steel production, electricity, and standardized parts & assembly lines in the later wave) -
@glyph @astraluma Twice, arguably - in the mid 19th century slowdown, and the late 19th/early 20th century slowdown. (The industrial revolution had a couple waves, where new technologies got picked up, dramatically changed some industry/industries, then growth slowed down once they had become widespread, with
things like steam engines, trains, and telegraphs, early on, mass steel production, electricity, and standardized parts & assembly lines in the later wave)@glyph @astraluma but then damn near an entire generation died in a war, and shortly after did it again, so it's a bit less clear in that period what was "We ran out of new big things" and what was "We ran out of able bodied men to use the new things." until you get into the more contemporary period...
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@glyph I take him at the persona he presents to us, Big Joel™.
Comedy answer: Mike
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@glyph …you’re gonna make a blog post version of this, yeah
*puppy eyes emoji*
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@glyph …you’re gonna make a blog post version of this, yeah
*puppy eyes emoji*
@genehack really trying to keep the blog to <50% whinging about AI, as I feel like this is a crowded field at the moment, but perhaps it'll consume one of those slots soon :)
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@genehack really trying to keep the blog to <50% whinging about AI, as I feel like this is a crowded field at the moment, but perhaps it'll consume one of those slots soon :)
@glyph I understand the ratio management, totes, but you may need to dial down the insights then.
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@glyph I understand the ratio management, totes, but you may need to dial down the insights then.
@glyph *ahem* dial down the insights (complimentary), that is.
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@glyph I take him at the persona he presents to us, Big Joel™.
Comedy answer: Mike
@2WaterGuns but sometimes big joel is also little joel, which is confusing
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@glyph *ahem* dial down the insights (complimentary), that is.
@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
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@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
@genehack if I wanted to do this and *not* stagnate I'd need to really up my research skills and I don't have the fortitude to do what David Gerard or Molly White do with significant amounts of actual research every day; that degree of abyss-gazing is too much psychic damage-over-time to withstand :)
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@genehack I appreciate that they've been useful and I will probably keep on doing them until they're not, but I've been in the unfortunate position at a few times in my career of needing to simply repeat the same obvious (or at least, obvious to me) "insight" to an audience of people whose jobs depended, in some degree, on not really understanding what I was saying. the combination of getting praised for being intelligent and correct while nothing changes is a recipe for personal stagnation
@glyph ALWAYS prioritize your own well being. Period, full stop.
2nd, I have said that one part of leadership is repeating the same thing over and over again until you’re past sick of hearing it.
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@glyph ALWAYS prioritize your own well being. Period, full stop.
2nd, I have said that one part of leadership is repeating the same thing over and over again until you’re past sick of hearing it.
@glyph that’s not quite the same thing as “to an audience that actively needs to not hear it”, to be fair, but I think that’s a matter of degree, not kind.
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@glyph that’s not quite the same thing as “to an audience that actively needs to not hear it”, to be fair, but I think that’s a matter of degree, not kind.
@genehack hmmmmmm you make an interesting point here about repetition, one that I have brushed up on in various discussions of sprachspiel. a good antithesis to my thesis, will need to contemplate the synthesis!
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@genehack hmmmmmm you make an interesting point here about repetition, one that I have brushed up on in various discussions of sprachspiel. a good antithesis to my thesis, will need to contemplate the synthesis!
@glyph the other version of that I’ve used is, “if you think you’re saying the same thing too much, that’s probably about the right amount”.
(May have stolen that from somebody, maybe…)
Gli ultimi otto messaggi ricevuti dalla Federazione
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Perché la guerra? Una riflessione psicoanalitica
@anarchia
img generata da IA – dominio pubblico di A. Marin «Non c’è speranza nel voler sopprimere le tendenze aggressive degli uomini […] D’altronde non si tratta di abolire completamente l’aggressività umana; si può cercare di deviarla al punto che non...https://www.rivoluzioneanarchica.it/perche-la-guerra-una-riflessione-psicoanalitica/
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Stardew Valley has sold nearly 50 million copies, outselling Pokémon and The Legend of Zelda. Why can't gamers put it down?
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Potenza dell'evoluzione. Fino al Cretaceo, le forme di vita avevano bisogno di un asteroide o di eventi catastrofici per estinguersi. Negli ultimi due milioni di anni l'evoluzione ha portato alla comparsa di una specie in grado di estinguersi senza dover dipendere dagli asteroidi.
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@InternetEh wait, there's hooking up in Stardew Valley? I think I played the wrong game. There was just, like, walking around and fishing in the game I played.
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Stardew characters I got with: Shane, Abigail, Harvey, Leah
I think Elliot once because I had a lot of pomegranates
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@GiorgiaMecojoni
Qualcuno ricorda la legge Acerbo che portò Mussolini al potere?
La Legge Acerbo, approvata il 21 luglio 1923 e applicata alle elezioni del 6 aprile 1924, fu una riforma elettorale maggioritaria fondamentale per il fascismo. Assegnava 2/3 dei seggi (premio di maggioranza) alla lista che ottenesse la maggioranza relativa di almeno il 25% dei voti. Ha permesso la creazione del "Listone" fascista e il consolidamento del potere di Mussolini.
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Gli "scarafaggi" del private credit iniziano a palesarsi
Private credit fund managed by KKR reports jump in troubled loans https://www.ft.com/content/06213ba6-5634-4c1c-b949-07013824c79f
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@jarvis I would keep the Pixel as you can install GrapheneOS on it (and not on Samsung phones).
Given the current state of the world, I would keep that option open. Signed, someone with a Pixel 9a w GrapheneOS 🤗
