Has Gaza done better with Donald Trump or Joseph Biden as President of the United States?
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Thanks, everyone, for responses and replies.
I think this is a hard question; it might even be an obscene question. Tens of thousands died before and after Trump took office. As one commenter put it, there is no "better" in a genocide.
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Thanks, everyone, for responses and replies.
I think this is a hard question; it might even be an obscene question. Tens of thousands died before and after Trump took office. As one commenter put it, there is no "better" in a genocide.
But the question seems to keep coming up, and it probably will more as we head into the 2026 midterm election season in the US. Are Arab Americans right or wrong to pressure Democrats to more vigorously oppose the genocide in Gaza? One aspect that comes up in discourse is whether things have been worse or better since Trump took office.
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But the question seems to keep coming up, and it probably will more as we head into the 2026 midterm election season in the US. Are Arab Americans right or wrong to pressure Democrats to more vigorously oppose the genocide in Gaza? One aspect that comes up in discourse is whether things have been worse or better since Trump took office.
I did some back of the envelope calculations. They are dark; I'm sorry. But according to the best official figures available, about 47K people had died in Gaza by Jan 2025; the number in November is about 71K. So, about 3100 people per month died since Oct 7 in Gaza under Biden; about 2500 per month under Trump.
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I did some back of the envelope calculations. They are dark; I'm sorry. But according to the best official figures available, about 47K people had died in Gaza by Jan 2025; the number in November is about 71K. So, about 3100 people per month died since Oct 7 in Gaza under Biden; about 2500 per month under Trump.
That is some disgusting meat grinder math, and I'm sorry I did it.
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That is some disgusting meat grinder math, and I'm sorry I did it.
Also, there was about 1 week of a ceasefire under Biden, and about 10 weeks in the 2 ceasefires, poorly observed, under Trump.
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Also, there was about 1 week of a ceasefire under Biden, and about 10 weeks in the 2 ceasefires, poorly observed, under Trump.
One big difference between the two is that the Biden Administration stuck to the Oslo consensus on a two state solution within the pre-1967 borders, and opposed at least publicly annexation, expulsion and extermination. The Trump Administration does not oppose any of these crimes in principle, and for a while eradication was Trump's preferred policy choice. The ceasefire agreement from October does not entertain these as an option, though.
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One big difference between the two is that the Biden Administration stuck to the Oslo consensus on a two state solution within the pre-1967 borders, and opposed at least publicly annexation, expulsion and extermination. The Trump Administration does not oppose any of these crimes in principle, and for a while eradication was Trump's preferred policy choice. The ceasefire agreement from October does not entertain these as an option, though.
Under these circumstances, if I press myself, I'd say that the genocide has been horrific under both administrations but slightly less intense under Trump.
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Under these circumstances, if I press myself, I'd say that the genocide has been horrific under both administrations but slightly less intense under Trump.
I don't know what this means for US politics. Should Arab Americans and pro-Palestinian allies vote blue no matter who next year?
Should they STFU and avoid putting pressure on Democratic candidates to commit to an arms embargo, recognition of the State of Palestine, or other controversial pro-Palestinian, anti-genocide positions?
Or, conversely, should they use this opportunity and their leverage to pull the party in the direction to actively oppose crimes against humanity?
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I don't know what this means for US politics. Should Arab Americans and pro-Palestinian allies vote blue no matter who next year?
Should they STFU and avoid putting pressure on Democratic candidates to commit to an arms embargo, recognition of the State of Palestine, or other controversial pro-Palestinian, anti-genocide positions?
Or, conversely, should they use this opportunity and their leverage to pull the party in the direction to actively oppose crimes against humanity?
Anyways, I'm sorry to ask hard questions. This is the world we live in.
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Anyways, I'm sorry to ask hard questions. This is the world we live in.
I would like to hear from at least some people who said "much better Biden", though. That seems like a hard case to make.
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I would like to hear from at least some people who said "much better Biden", though. That seems like a hard case to make.
@evan I've been pretty anti Palestinian since I was in an attack by abu nidal in 1985 - so I'm hardly objective - but it seems like Trump has forced Hamas to give up whatever leverage they had while the Israelis seem to be more or less continuing to settle and otherwise colonize the Gaza strip. So it certainly seems like Gaza is worse for Gazans under Trump.
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@evan the correct answer is not on this list, which is that they both suck
@shantini I agree.
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@evan I've been pretty anti Palestinian since I was in an attack by abu nidal in 1985 - so I'm hardly objective - but it seems like Trump has forced Hamas to give up whatever leverage they had while the Israelis seem to be more or less continuing to settle and otherwise colonize the Gaza strip. So it certainly seems like Gaza is worse for Gazans under Trump.
@wschenk I'm sorry that happened to you.
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@evan I have trouble believing averages mean shit all to survivors. The problem is cumulative as long as it continues.
If last year, your neighbors are missing or dead, and you were forced to flee your home with your family, uncertain of how to get help— but this year, your family is dead, your neighborhood has been crushed into the ground, and you question if anything will ever matter again— then there's no "better" until there's peace, safety, and a chance to actually heal.
We see this, simplified (from our perspective), with endangered animals. Anything that adds to "surplus" losses is making the situation worse.
It's not better until there's recovery. A decrease in the extremely death counts isn't recovery— especially when the counts are less accurate, likely undercounting the deaths as reports are increasingly difficult to confirm.
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@wschenk I'm sorry that happened to you.
@evan The word terrorism has been hijacked politically and lost its moral clarity to express a fairly profound chaotic horror, but it very definitely forces you into a moral calculus where you have to compare and rank what you call "obscene questions". How does the 75K (children + adults) killed in Gaza compare to the 500K children killed in Sudan, and what is our responsibility as those with power to either ongoing events.
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@evan The word terrorism has been hijacked politically and lost its moral clarity to express a fairly profound chaotic horror, but it very definitely forces you into a moral calculus where you have to compare and rank what you call "obscene questions". How does the 75K (children + adults) killed in Gaza compare to the 500K children killed in Sudan, and what is our responsibility as those with power to either ongoing events.
@evan But I do find your question really strange to be honest: the republicans are happy to give Israel cart blanch and are overtly trying to bring about the christian eschaton, and they are actively hostile to the Palestinians. Muslim bans, etc. The democrats are at least paying lip service to the Palestinian cause. Things will be 1000% percent better for the Arabs under the democrats.
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@evan But I do find your question really strange to be honest: the republicans are happy to give Israel cart blanch and are overtly trying to bring about the christian eschaton, and they are actively hostile to the Palestinians. Muslim bans, etc. The democrats are at least paying lip service to the Palestinian cause. Things will be 1000% percent better for the Arabs under the democrats.
@wschenk sure, but the raw carnage was worse under Biden than under Trump. For his own weird reasons, some personal and some isolationist, he puts a premium on peace, just or unjust.
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@evan I have trouble believing averages mean shit all to survivors. The problem is cumulative as long as it continues.
If last year, your neighbors are missing or dead, and you were forced to flee your home with your family, uncertain of how to get help— but this year, your family is dead, your neighborhood has been crushed into the ground, and you question if anything will ever matter again— then there's no "better" until there's peace, safety, and a chance to actually heal.
We see this, simplified (from our perspective), with endangered animals. Anything that adds to "surplus" losses is making the situation worse.
It's not better until there's recovery. A decrease in the extremely death counts isn't recovery— especially when the counts are less accurate, likely undercounting the deaths as reports are increasingly difficult to confirm.
@shadowfals I agree. I like this formulation.
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